the Ukrainian leadership considers intervention by Belarusian military alongside Russia in the war in Ukraine currently unlikely. The probability that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will make the decision to participate in the war is “15 to 20 percent,” said Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovich on Tuesday evening, according to the Unian agency.
Lukashenko is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite Russian military forces using Belarusian territory as a stepping stone to invade Ukraine, Belarus is not taking an active part in the war, despite repeated urging from Moscow.
According to Ukrainian findings, around 60 percent of Belarusian soldiers refused to take part in the war in the neighboring country. “But if they are ordered to do so, they will cross the border, and some of them will even fight,” Arestovich said. “But I think that part that will fight will not even have the opportunity to gain military experience.”