From a Western perspective, China under Xi has not been acting rationally for a long time.
(Photo: Reuters)
Rhetorically speaking, China’s head of state and party leader once again went far beyond diplomatic conventions to dissuade Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, from visiting Taiwan. In an interview with US President Joe Biden, Xi Jinping spoke of “playing with fire”. The Chinese foreign ministry even indirectly threatened military consequences.
Against this background, Pelosi continues her Asia tour on Tuesday. The 82-year-old did not publish an exact travel plan. The top politician started her journey in Singapore. Other announced stops are Malaysia, Japan and South Korea.
It remained unclear whether Pelosi would also travel to Taiwan despite warnings from China. The US broadcaster CNN, citing a Taiwanese and a US government official, reported that a visit to Taiwan was “expected”.
Indeed, a visit by such a senior US politician to Taipei risks escalating the conflict over the island that China regards as its own. Especially at a time when Sino-US relations are already extremely strained.
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Over the years, a fragile status quo has settled in the Taiwan conflict, which, although unsatisfactory in the eyes of many, has so far successfully prevented a military confrontation.
To put it simply, China requires those states that want to have official diplomatic relations with Beijing not to maintain official diplomatic relations with Taipei – including the USA.
China has warned the US of a “very serious situation and consequences” if the Speaker of the US House of Representatives makes an unannounced visit to Taiwan.
(Photo: AP)
Any border crossing, whether Chinese or American, that the other side sees as a violation of the current status quo jeopardizes the fragile balance in the conflict. Possibly a trip from Pelosi to Taipei.
From a rational point of view, a military escalation or a move in this direction by China currently makes little sense. The economy is under pressure, budgets are overburdened and experts doubt that the Chinese military would even be able to successfully hold its own in a complex military conflict over a long period of time.
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But China under Xi, at least from a Western perspective, has not been acting rationally for a long time. Ideological goals take precedence. And within the ruling Communist Party, the will to “reunite” China and Taiwan, as it calls it, is huge. Experts warn that the nationalist forces strengthened under Xi have long been hungry for war.
The benefit of Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan would be limited – the consequences of an escalation of the Taiwan conflict, on the other hand, would be all the greater – also for Germany, which is economically closely intertwined with the People’s Republic in many areas.
Because if there were actually a military conflict over Taiwan, the armed forces of the two major powers, the USA and China, would face each other directly. Biden has repeatedly made it unmistakably clear that the US would provide military assistance to Taiwan in the event of an attack.
More: Fear of an escalation with China: controversy over possible trip to Taiwan by Pelosi