Fitch Ratings updated its growth, exchange rate and inflation forecasts for Turkey. The statements made make us think that the Turkish economy will not be able to breathe easily for a while. Here are Fitch’s new Turkey predictions…
Popular credit rating agency Fitchupdated its forecasts for Turkey’s exchange rate, growth and inflation. In the statements made by the institution, it was estimated that Turkey’s growth rate would decrease in 2022. On the other hand; According to Fitch, both the dollar/TL parity and the inflation data will be updated in the upcoming periods. will be above expectations…
When we look at Fitch’s Turkey projections, we see that the dollar/TL parity will be at the end of 2022. would be in the 16 band We see. In 2023, however, things will only get worse. Because, according to analysts, the dollar rate will rise at the end of next year. 17.80 will be recorded as On March 22, 2022 (today) the dollar/TL parity 14.82 Let’s say it’s level.
The rise in inflation will continue for a while
Fitch analysts are also not very positive about inflation figures. Because, according to their expectations, inflation will increase in the coming months. will reach up to 60 percent. Analysts predict an inflation figure of 49 percent at the end of 2022, and 35 percent for the end of 2023. According to analysts, these inflation figures, private consumption It will drop pretty hard. In other words, citizens will not be able to spend money in the upcoming period… February 2022 inflation data Let us remind you that it is 54.44% on an annual basis.
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In Fitch’s previous statements, the 2022 growth forecast for the Turkish economy was 4.3 percent. However, this has changed in recent estimates. According to the new forecasts of analysts, the growth in the economy by the end of 2022 2.4 percent will be recorded as Estimating that there will be a growth of 3.2 percent in 2023, Fitch, as a natural result of all these, interest rate hike believes. According to estimates, the CBRT’s interest rate will be recorded as 19 percent in 2023. It should be noted that if such a thing happens, the policy rate in Turkey will return to the level of September 2021. So that the governmentwhy interest is inflationWhen we transitioned to the new economic model that he started within the scope of the idea of ”, the CBRT interest rate was 19 percent. In other words, in this process. everything that happened will be reset…
Source :
https://www.sozcu.com.tr/2022/ekonomi/fitchten-dolar-faiz-enflasyon-ve-buyume-tahmini-7026283/