What if Le Pen wins against Macron?

Dusseldorf Four days before the run-off election in France, incumbent President Emmanuel Macron and his opponent Marine Le Pen met in the first and only TV duel. The two faced each other in the runoff election in 2017. At that time, Macron won the election with around 66 percent of the vote.

Such a clear result is not to be expected this time: According to the latest polls, Le Pen will have 44 percent in the runoff next Sunday, Macron 56 percent. In the current episode of “Handelsblatt Today”, Handelsblatt editor-in-chief Christian Rickens talks about what it would mean for Germany and Europe if, contrary to expectations, Le Pen were to win the presidential election: “Le Pen stands for a course that would set the country back .” She wants to give up integration into NATO’s military structures, overturn Franco-German armament projects and turn the country into a nation state that can get by without its allies.

Macron’s lead in the polls currently makes him the favorite, but there could also be nasty surprises. The war in Ukraine and the citizens’ concerns about inflation made the political mood seem more fluid. “It brings back memories of Trump’s 2016 election or Brexit,” said Rickens. “Here, too, the survey results signaled the opposite until the very end – until the rude awakening finally came.”

Also: The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) have so far reacted differently to the stagflationary tendencies. But which strategy is the better one in the current situation? In view of the high inflation, should interest rates be raised quickly, as the Fed intends to do, or does the ECB’s cautious approach make more sense given the risk of recession? What do the stock markets have to prepare for in the coming months? And is there even a threat of a split in the world economy as a result of the Ukraine war? Handelsblatt stock analyst Ulf Sommer provides answers to these questions.

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