What happens when gas runs out?

Slightly more than a third of natural gas consumption in Germany is accounted for by industry. Trade, commerce and services account for twelve percent. Natural gas is of central importance for individual branches of industry. Natural gas is an energy source for power and heat generation in industry, but in many cases it is also an important raw material, for example in the chemical industry.

What domino effects could arise?

“Stopping Russian gas supplies would have far-reaching secondary effects,” says Timm Kehler from the industry association Zukunft Gas. “Many of the gas-based process steps are elementary components of the German core industries of vehicle construction and chemicals. Without gas for the production of vehicle windows or for drying paint, for example, there is a risk of automobile production coming to a halt,” warns Kehler.

In glass production, there is also the fact that a cold glass melting tank is tantamount to a total economic loss. But not only glass production and automobile construction would be affected.

Natural gas is also the raw material for ammonia production. Ammonia, in turn, is indispensable for fertilizer production. Without gas, there is a risk of production bottlenecks and price increases in agriculture and food production. “Adblue”, the urea solution for exhaust aftertreatment in diesel engines, could no longer be produced without ammonia.

Does industry have alternatives to using natural gas?

In individual cases, natural gas can be substituted. But substitutes, such as coal or oil, are not always available. Even where there are alternatives to gas, technical conversions and official approvals are required, for example if natural gas is to be replaced by lignite in the lime industry.

Are there regional differences in the effects?

Timm Kehler from Zukunft Gas points out that there are strong regional differences: The consequences of a supply bottleneck would be “particularly noticeable in southern Germany,” he says. This part of the country is supplied almost exclusively by Russian natural gas, and alternative supply routes have so far only had limited capacity.

“A gas shortage will first be felt in the industrial centers of Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg,” says Kehler. According to Kehler, with a view to the whole of Europe, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary, where important suppliers to the German automotive industry are located, would be particularly affected. Production outages there would quickly jeopardize production in Germany, Kehler warns.

How important is natural gas for heating?

Almost a third of the natural gas in Germany is used for heating and hot water in private households. Seven percent of the natural gas is used to operate district heating networks. Almost half of the more than 40 million apartments in Germany use natural gas as an energy source. Heating with oil comes in second place. Around a quarter of all German apartments are heated in this way.

District heating ranks third with a share of around 14 percent, followed by “other energy sources”. These include liquid gas, wood pellets and coal. Their share is 7.5 percent. Heating with electricity, i.e. with electric heat pumps or night storage heaters, is only the method of choice in around 4.8 percent of all apartments.

One of the goals of the federal government is to significantly increase the proportion of heat pumps in order to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. However, heat pumps are primarily useful in well-insulated houses.

Does it get cold in the apartments?

This cannot be completely ruled out, but it is very unlikely. Because before private households feel a shortage of gas, other consumers must first stop consuming gas.

This is regulated in the “Gas Emergency Plan”, with which the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology implemented the corresponding EU regulation. In addition, the gas industry itself has developed a detailed guide.

Before the emergency plan takes effect, all market-related measures must be exhausted. This means, for example, contractual regulations on shutdowns. For example, there are corporate customers who have agreed supply interruptions with their gas supplier under certain conditions. You can be rewarded for the interruption of the delivery.

But the potential of such shutdowns is limited. If such flexibility options are not sufficient and short-term procurement of gas from neighboring countries is not possible, the gas network operators must go one step further and stop or cut back on supplies to “non-protected customers”. This initially affects gas-fired power plants, as long as their shutdown does not affect the power supply system as a whole. Should this measure not suffice, the supply of gas to systemically important gas-fired power plants would also be restricted.

If that doesn’t help either, it could get cold in German apartments. “Protected end consumers” would then also be affected. According to the industry guide, their gas purchases may only be reduced “if other measures are not available or not available in good time”.

The “Gas Emergency Plan” of the Federal Ministry of Economics outlines the concept of the protected customer quite precisely. These are household customers, combined heat and power plants and “basic social services”. This means hospitals, fire brigades, public administration and educational institutions.

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