Ankara Their meeting in a restaurant in Ankara lasted five hours and 15 minutes. Then came the statement by the six party leaders, and it sounded like a vote of no confidence in Recep Tayyip’s Erdogan: an alliance had been decided – an alliance against the incumbent president. Turkey is in one of the deepest political and economic crises in its history.
The main reason for this is the “arbitrary” leadership in the presidential system. The task now is to strengthen the parliament again, and after almost 20 years Erdogan finally needs a change of power.
Although Turkey will not hold elections until June 24 next year, the political camps have long since begun to measure their strength. The opposition sees their chance to join forces to overthrow Erdogan and the presidential system he created.
The European Union is also looking with interest at the possible power shift on the Bosphorus. Brussels knows that an election victory for the opposition could drastically improve Turkey’s relations with the West, and there would also be a good chance of eliminating the country’s democratic deficits.
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However, there are several obstacles in the way of success. First of all, the pro-Kurdish HDP, which is under massive political pressure because of alleged terrorist connections, has so far been left out of the meetings.
In addition, the parties lack their own concept that connects them and goes beyond the opposition to Erdogan. So far they have received about half of the votes in polls. The government alliance between the conservative-religious AKP and the nationalist MHP is just behind. Almost every eleventh respondent is undecided.
And finally, the parties have so far failed to address one of the most important groups of voters: the country’s youth.
Cooperation as a choice tactic
Observers assume that the six parties will nominate a joint candidate for the upcoming presidential elections. In addition to the largest opposition party CHP and the national conservative Iyi party, the Islamist Saadet Party, the Democratic Party (DP), the Party for Democracy and Progress (Deva) and the Future Party also want to join the alliance.
The party, founded by Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, can also enter parliament on its own, but still relies on an alliance.
(Photo: imago images/GocherImagery)
With a view to the upcoming parliamentary elections in 2023, there are also tactical reasons why the six parties, some of which are completely different, are getting together. In Turkey, there is a 10 percent hurdle for parties to enter parliament. From the opposition alliance, only the CHP and the Iyi party would have a chance.
In an official electoral alliance, on the other hand, only the entire alliance would have to clear this hurdle. This means that smaller parties would also have a chance and would give the opposition more weight in parliament. Of course, Erdogan’s ruling party also sees this risk. There have therefore been debates in Ankara for some time about abolishing the electoral alliances.
President is elected separately by Parliament
But even if the alliance parties were successful in the parliamentary elections, Erdogan would still not be out of office: the president will be elected on the same day, but separately from parliament.
In order to be able to seek a referendum for constitutional changes such as the abolition of the presidential system, the opposition needs a three-fifths majority in parliament, for a direct constitutional change even a two-thirds majority. This poses a problem for the parties, as Turkish political analyst Murat Yetkin explains: “The opposition would find themselves within the framework of the current constitution even if they won the elections.”
In addition, the six parties have been working on a plan for a new constitution since September. However, they could not agree at their most recent meeting.
Furthermore, so far none of the opposition parties has been able to spark enthusiasm among the population, despite the general dissatisfaction with the status quo. They all hope for the young voters – and that they are fed up with Erdogan’s regime.
At the next election date in June 2023, there will be five million first-time voters in the country. This corresponds to around ten percent of the entire electorate.
Young voters are undecided
In a broad-based study between May and September 2021, the Konrad-Adenauer-Foundation surveyed thousands of young people in the country about their political and social attitudes. The result: Hardly anyone is convinced of Erdogan – but sometimes just as little of the opposition.
According to the survey, a total of 23.9 percent of the participants would vote for the CHP and only ten percent the ruling AKP. 44.8 percent are undecided.
Nils Lange, who works in the foundation’s Ankara office, sees the main reason for this indecisiveness as “that the current political parties and their leaders do not meet the expectations and needs of young people”.
Respondents do not only blame the government for the polarization of society and the political, social and economic challenges. According to the survey participants, the opposition has also failed to create an alternative to the current system of government.
Gloomy view of the future
This is also evident when asked which political leader the participants admire and value most. Of the politicians who are currently party leaders in Turkey, “none of them” was named first with 20.1 percent. President Erdogan came second.
In addition, 62.8 percent of those surveyed do not see Turkey’s future positively. A total of 35.2 percent even consider the future to be completely hopeless.
According to Lange, a member of the foundation’s staff, this is because “Turkish youth have a particularly pessimistic view of the economic situation and their own lives”. The main reasons for this are the high cost of living for students, high inflation and fears of a possible economic collapse.
The parties compete for the favor of younger voters.
(Photo: Reuters)
The current situation makes three out of four respondents want to live in another country. That includes a large proportion of those who would vote for the opposition.
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The study also shows that young Turks do not want an “anti-Erdogan”. The country’s president does not come off well in the poll. On the other hand, a large majority support nationalist values.
The Turkish flag is important to 89.7 percent of respondents and being Turkish is important to 71.6 percent. The majority of respondents also describe themselves as religious or “very religious”.
The summary of the study states: “The love of homeland was also evident in the conversations in which some young people said that they wanted to go abroad out of desperation, but decided to stay in Turkey because they are nationalists and love their country.” That is exactly the keyboard on which Erdogan’s AKP and coalition partner MHP play.
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