Brussels, Berlin It has long been more than the usual provocations in the Ukraine conflict. The message from Moscow to the West is sharp and unmistakable: there is an acute danger of war in Europe. Tensions are increasing every day, and the space for diplomacy is shrinking every day.
Russia accuses Ukraine of preparing a military strike in the east of the country – and thus creates what Western secret services have been warning about in recent months: a justification for an invasion. 100,000 Russian soldiers, tanks and artillery surrounded Ukraine in a crescent that stretched from Belarus down to the Crimean Peninsula and on to Moldova. An order from the Kremlin – and the invasion begins.
The European Union has sharply condemned the behavior of the Russian leadership. “Continuing aggressive actions and threats against Ukraine” denounced the EU foreign ministers in a joint statement agreed at their meeting in Brussels on Monday.
Zones of influence such as those claimed by Russia have “no place in the 21st century”. The foreign ministers again announced that “any further aggression” by the Russians would have “massive consequences and high costs”. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken joined the Brussels deliberations to brief Europeans on the recent meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Geneva.
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Moscow does not seem ready to give in
Accordingly, Russia does not appear to be prepared for any de-escalation – on the contrary. Lavrov agreed to further talks after meeting Blinken on Friday. But on Monday, the Russian leadership intensified its confrontational course against the West again. The Kremlin warned that the danger of war had never been as great as it is today.
US President Joe Biden wanted to consult with the Europeans in a video conference on Monday evening. In addition to Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Polish Head of State Andrzej Duda, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, EU Council President Charles Michel and NATO will also attend, according to the White House -Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. It is about “Russia’s military build-up on the borders of Ukraine,” as the White House said.
But according to the Russian account, only the Europeans and the USA are to blame for the crisis. According to Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov, the alliance is “pumping” arms into Ukraine and is “gradually” penetrating Ukrainian territory itself with its infrastructure, weapons and trainers.
The EU firmly rejects this. “The spread of pro-Kremlin disinformation is intended to obscure the true extent and purpose of Russia’s increased military presence near Ukraine,” writes the EU’s External Action Service in an analysis.
The US is considering increasing its troop presence in Eastern Europe.
(Photo: AP)
NATO is reacting to the Russian troop mobilization with its own military measures. The armed forces of the NATO countries are on alert, said Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of the Defense Alliance. “I welcome the fact that the allies are contributing additional forces to NATO,” he said in Brussels. The defense alliance will “take all necessary measures” to defend its allies and will reinforce “the eastern part of the alliance”.
The US is considering increasing its troop presence in Eastern Europe. According to the New York Times, the Pentagon presented US President Joe Biden with plans to station “several thousand troops, as well as warships and aircraft” in the Baltic States and Eastern Europe. Other NATO countries also want to increase contingents in the east.
The decision by the United States to call on members of its embassy in Kiev to leave the Ukraine also shows how seriously the Russian threats are taken in the West. The federal government does not currently consider such a step to be necessary, but offers members of the embassy staff free departure.
“The safety of employees has top priority,” said Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock before her deliberations in Brussels. However, it is important “not to contribute to further uncertainty in the situation”, but “to continue to support the Ukrainian government very clearly”. The EU Commission promised the beleaguered country a further 1.2 billion dollars on Monday.
Criticism of the “German special path”
While the Eastern Europeans in particular are vehemently demanding a policy of strength and relying on military deterrence, Germany is hesitant. Debates within the coalition and concerns about fueling the conflict further are slowing down the federal government – and triggering fierce criticism internationally.
“It is now absolutely necessary that Germany does not take a separate path, but that a clear European position is found,” emphasized Wolfgang Ischinger, the long-time chairman of the Munich Security Conference. The West needs “a strong dual strategy that relies on both credible deterrence and dialogue.”
This is also how the Union sees it: “We must send clear and tough messages and must not remove any sanction options – and must be united in Germany, Europe and NATO. Otherwise Putin will interpret that as a weakness,” warned the deputy leader of the Union faction, Johann Wadephul. If the transatlantic alliance decides to increase NATO troops in Eastern Europe, “we are ready to support that.” Germany will make every necessary contribution,” said the CDU foreign politician.
He called on Chancellor Olaf Scholz not to “continue to ignore” the Ukraine issue. Scholz “must also lead in foreign policy”. Especially with regard to military aid to Ukraine from Western partners, Wadephul demanded: “If other NATO countries want to deliver, Germany must at least not block it, that’s the minimum.”
But the German government is currently doing just that. The departments are discussing Estonia’s request to supply Ukraine with howitzers that originally came from the stocks of the GDR’s National People’s Army. The approval of the federal government is required for this. A government spokeswoman stressed on Monday that the howitzers were lethal weapons. Berlin had previously strictly refused deliveries of such war equipment.
The Green European politician Viola von Cramon admitted that “our partner countries find our attitude strange”: “We have to be careful that we don’t completely lose the trust of Ukraine.” During her visits to Kiev and Moscow, Baerbock showed that German foreign policy is reliable stay. “The chancellor urgently needs to show even more empathy and set a common course,” demanded von Cramon. This line includes “not excluding anything and not hindering any arms aid from other countries to Ukraine”.
Baerbock had previously prevented arms deliveries to Ukraine, and the heads of the CDU and CSU, Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, had rejected tough economic sanctions. The government in Moscow rejects the accusation of preparing an invasion. However, she is demanding security guarantees from NATO, such as a rejection of Ukraine’s admission. The alliance rejects this with reference to the right of states to self-determination, but has given Ukraine no concrete prospect of accession.
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