The Gazprom pipes of Nord Stream 2 between Vyborg in Russia and Greifswald in Germany were deactivated by the German government after the Ukraine invasion. Apparently, a submissive statement by the Chancellor was taken in Moscow as an invitation for a new threat. According to Olaf Scholz (SPD), the supply of Russian energy is “of essential importance for services of general interest and the daily life of our citizens.”
A new draft for the EU summit meeting of heads of state and government on Thursday in Versailles also breathes this spirit: According to this, the 27 member states want to “gradually reduce their dependency on Russian gas, oil and coal imports”. The fact that, according to a Handelsblatt survey, the majority of the population voted for an oil and gas embargo, and not gradually, disappeared in the dry fog of realpolitik.
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Italy, on the other hand, wants to definitely replace half of the gas imports from Russia with supplies from other sources by the middle of the year. The US is also planning to forego energy deals with the Putin regime. The economist Veronika Grimm, a member of the Economic Advisory Council, takes a clear position in an interview with my colleague Julian Olk.
- “If an energy embargo can curb the escalation and make the spread of war in Europe less likely, then we should take the step. Protracted military conflicts in Europe would have far more serious consequences than stopping energy supplies.”
- “The gas reserves are sufficient for the current winter. The challenge is the winter of 2022/2023. We must start preparing immediately. With gas imports from other countries, the use of coal-fired power plants and lower consumption, however, this is feasible. It will be challenging and expensive, but not cold.”
- “Fortunately, Germany is able to cushion the consequences of an import ban. And there is the exception rule of the debt brake to have fiscal leeway in emergencies.”
Translated it means: We all have to dress warmly, and when in doubt, the slogan is “Freeze for world peace.”
It is, of course, an illusion to think that the economy in the guise of Gazprom’s energy monopoly will just carry on as usual while the Gazprom owner is de facto declaring war on the West. Veronika Grimm seems to understand this better than Germany’s top active politician, whom she is supposed to advise.
In any case, the markets react extremely strongly to the double Putin terror with cannon barrel and gas pipe. On Monday, the oil price rose in phases by 18 percent to over $139 per barrel. The gas price, on the other hand, briefly reached the all-time high of EUR 345 per megawatt hour – a year ago it had never been above EUR 20.
Dax (down two percent) and Dow Jones (down 2.4 percent) lost yesterday Monday evening. In this situation, German politicians are debating a gas price cap, while the EU Commission has another idea – namely to skim off part of the extra profits from wind and solar energy companies resulting from energy inflation through taxes.
We know from the US politician Benjamin Franklin: “Nothing in this world is certain except death and taxes.”
Beyond Vladimir Putin’s threats and killer commands, how strong or weak Russia really is? In any case, there can be no talk of a successful “lightning war” against Ukraine. “We are surprised at the lack of organization we see,” says Heinrich Bauß, Lieutenant General a. D. of the Bundeswehr, about the Russian art of war. An officer of the Russian secret service FSB has already declared the Ukraine invasion plans as a failure via Facebook: “No one in Russia was prepared for a war like this.”
Carlo Masala, a professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, says: “Russia has suffered more losses, including material ones, than you probably calculated. The Russians will not be able to occupy this whole country permanently.”
The investment bank Morgan Stanley already expects the Russian state bankruptcy in mid-April. That may be an exaggeration, but many shelves in Moscow’s shops are already empty.
Hedge funds like to “short-sell”: They bet on the downfall of certain stocks by selling forward. Putin’s attack on Ukraine surprised even the hardened speculators – and soon had their short-seller actions corrected.
example Nordex: The wind power group, previously a loser, is now seen by hedge funds as a beneficiary of the strategy of promoting renewable energies more than before.
example BAE Systems: The armaments company, like its rival Leonardo, no longer presents itself as an economic relegator. The investment professionals assume that Germany, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands will soon increase their defense spending.
example BASF: This is where the hedge funds correct by increasing their bets on relegation. The “short quote”, i.e. the propensity to sell, is rising sharply at chemical companies such as BASF. The reason: this industry has the problem that the preliminary products have become much more expensive as a result of the war.
example Sanlorenzo: Here, too, “short bets” are booming. The Italian shipbuilder is expected to drop further as Russian oligarchs are no longer buying 70-meter luxury yachts.
All losers on the war stock exchange – whether short seller or not – can console themselves with Voltaire: “Those who tame their desires are always rich.”
100 billion euros special fund for the Bundeswehr – how can this sum best be used? What military role should Germany play in the future? And how must our relationship with the army change? Write us your opinion in five sentences [email protected]. We will publish selected articles with attribution on Thursday in print and online.
And then there is Rainer Koch, intrigue specialist and currently interim president of the German Football Association (DFB). Three former DFB presidents join forces against him: Fritz Keller, Reinhard Grindel and Theo Zwanziger. The rebel trio advocates a real new start for the association, which is being pursued by scandals and tax investigations – without a cook.
The DFB Bundestag will elect a new president on Friday. Bernd Neuendorf, head of the Mittelrhein Association, is the candidate for the amateurs, which is considered a move by Koch, who is pushing himself into the DFB presidium.
However, Peter Peters, who is favored by the pros and has been the head of the supervisory board of the German Football League (DFL) for many years, has a flaw: As CFO of FC Schalke 04, he was responsible for brazen debt tricks that brought the club to the brink of collapse. Such mismanagement does not even qualify for a sausage stand, not to mention the DFB.
Conclusion: Here there are only people who surrender or fail.
I wish you a successful day where failure is not an option.
It greets you cordially
Her
Hans Jürgen Jakobs
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