Brussels, Moscow The world is looking at the dramatic situation in the Belarusian-Polish border area. For Russia, however, this is only a sideline to its power politics, which is a good distraction: The US has observed Russian troop movements on the border with Ukraine – and issued a warning.
Russia is also showing a military presence in the case of Belarus: On Thursday, Moscow sent two combat aircraft capable of nuclear weapons there for military exercises. That was the second time in two days.
There had already been extensive Russian military activities on the border with Ukraine this spring. Thousands of soldiers were relocated to the Crimean peninsula annexed by Russia, naval ships and air force planes were in action; heavy military equipment was sighted in general.
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The West feared that Russia was planning to invade Ukraine. Russia, on the other hand, spoke of a military exercise and withdrew its soldiers after a few weeks.
“Russia uses the classic intimidation tactics here, which were also frequently used by the Soviet Union,” said the Green MEP Viola von Cramon the Handelsblatt. This tactic is associated with relatively little effort and aims to test the West.
Nevertheless, it poses a great danger. “This time the situation is even more complex because of the Belarusian dimension,” said von Cramon. “One possibility is that Russia could bet that the frequent military marches will cause some kind of ‘wear and tear’ to appear, which could lead to less awareness in the West of such maneuvers.”
The fatal calculation: This would also reduce international outcry and protests – with the consequence that the Kremlin can more easily occupy Ukraine.
Moscow, in turn, regards the allegations as a diversionary maneuver by the West
The Russian leadership rejects the allegations from Washington. “Russia has never planned and is not planning to invade Ukraine militarily,” said Moscow’s permanent UN representative, Dmitri Polyansky.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov spoke of an “empty and unfounded charging of tensions.” Russia poses no threat to anyone, he said. Instead, the danger comes from the West. In this context, he criticized NATO’s unscheduled naval maneuvers in the Black Sea and “the active reconnaissance activities of NATO aircraft” on the Russian borders. The Russian Defense Ministry had previously announced that its own air defense had sighted three Alliance fighter planes over the sea within one day.
In Moscow, the accusations made by the West are seen as a diversionary maneuver anyway: the situation has recently worsened in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian troops have taken the village of Staromaevka in the so-called gray zone. The village is located at the narrowest point of the separatist territories, only 30 kilometers from the Russian border, which is why the pro-Russian militias fear a further advance by the Ukrainians and thus the splitting of their own forces into a northern and southern half. Moscow also expressed its indignation and sees a violation of the Minsk Agreement.
There are criteria for military exercises that Russia has not complied with, according to an EU official.
(Photo: dpa)
From circles of the various EU institutions it is again said that they stand completely on the Ukrainian side and support them in protecting their territory. Regarding the Russians’ argument that it was a military exercise, an EU official pointed out that there are corresponding criteria for such exercises: “For example, you have to inform the other countries in advance – but what has not happened here,” she said on Friday .
One observes the current events very closely and can also be heard in Brussels. However, one does not share the immense concern of the Americans. The situation is no more dramatic than usual.
“The possible serious threat should not be ignored,” urged on the other hand MEPs from Cramon. “Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, EU Council President Charles Michel as well as the heads of state and government must approach Putin personally and clearly state that such games are dangerous and extremely counterproductive.”
The EU should use all diplomatic means, von Cramon continued. “For example, the summoning of the Russian ambassador or, if necessary, the announcement that the sanctions against Russia will be tightened.”
More: Comment: The Belarus crisis is the final dress rehearsal for a serious EU foreign policy.