Increasing volatility and selling pressure in the markets bitcoin causing its price to struggle at the $20,000 level. The comments that the FED will raise interest rates on September 21 are a critical detail that will also shape the market structure in the coming months. According to Wall Street experts, the Fed may raise interest rates by 75 basis points, an increase that will cause the Bitcoin price to drop below the $20,000 level.
Koinfinans.com As we reported, the bottom of the Bitcoin (BTC) price is estimated using various on-chain price models such as the realized price, the Delta price and the Thermo price. However, actual price action can also be shaped by technical and macroeconomic factors.
The actual price is one of the most commonly used on-chain price models to predict the bottom of the Bitcoin price. The model is based on the average price at which each Bitcoin in circulation last moved. Historically, Bitcoin has always been below the realized price. If the BTC price drops further below the actual price, other price patterns are used. The currently realized price is located at $21,592.
historically, bitcoin price In the 2015 and 2018 bear market, Delta had bottomed out in price. Currently, the delta price is located at $14,478. This is a frightening detail that indicates that the BTC price could drop another 28% from the current level.
Thermo price signaled a market bottom in 2011. According to the thermo price, which is based on the price of each Bitcoin when it was first issued, the Bitcoin base is at $2,365. However, as the number of addresses holding BTC has grown exorbitantly, the probability of the price dropping to these levels in the current cycle is very low.
Risks Continue in Bitcoin Price
The Fed’s rate hike will be reshaped mostly based on August employment data and CPI data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 75 basis point rate hike is 67%. In addition, Wall Street banks expect a 75 basis point increase in September.
According to the August employment data of the USA, the employment rate fell to 315 thousand from 528 thousand in July. Also, the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% in August from 3.5% in July. It is actually possible to say that a bullish trend is on the table for the Bitcoin market.
However, the CPI data on September 13 will largely remove all doubts regarding a possible interest rate hike in September. Falling oil and food prices will slow the Fed’s rate hikes. Historically, September has been a bad month for US stocks and crypto markets.
You can follow the current price action here.
Disclaimer: What is written here is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments are high-risk investments. Every investment decision is under the individual’s own responsibility. Finally, Koinfinans and the author of this content cannot be held responsible for personal investment decisions.