Berlin At the cabinet meeting on Wednesday, the dispute between the traffic light coalition partners at the federal level reached its preliminary high point. The focus: nuclear policy. Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) was unable to present his law, which is intended to enable the continued operation of two southern German nuclear power plants until April 2023. The plans do not go far enough for the liberals. “We’re not done with it in the cabinet yet,” said FDP leader Christian Lindner (FDP).
It is no coincidence that Habeck and Lindner are raising the issue again. The state elections are taking place in Lower Saxony this Sunday: the polling stations have been open since 8 a.m. and voting is possible until 6 p.m. Almost 6.1 million people are entitled to vote.
The election is an important mood test for the traffic light coalition in Berlin. And the nuclear debate is a defining campaign issue.
In the most recent polls, the SPD (31 to 32 percent) was just ahead of the CDU (27 to 30 percent), followed by the Greens (16 to 19 percent). The AfD (9 to 11 percent) could improve to a double-digit result, the FDP (5 percent) has to tremble about remaining in the state parliament in Hanover. The left (3 to 4 percent) was just below the five percent hurdle.
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While Prime Minister Stephan Weil (SPD) hopes to be re-elected with the bonus and is largely staying out of the nuclear dispute, the Greens and the FDP are attacking each other more and more fiercely.
FDP top candidate Stefan Birkner recently traveled to Berlin after a presidium meeting to present his party’s decision to extend the life of all three nuclear power plants – including the nuclear power plant in Lingen, Lower Saxony, which Habeck wants to shut down at the end of the year. It is not acceptable “that the green party base and the green state policy in Lower Saxony determine the energy policy of an entire state,” says Birkner.
The Lower Saxony Greens are considered to be particularly decisive on the nuclear power plant issue. After all, the party fought here for decades against the Gorleben repository.
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Meanwhile, Birkner has followed suit. He demands that the two nuclear power plants that have already been switched off come back on line, should that be necessary. Lindner took up the claim on Wednesday. The FDP is trying to drive the Greens ahead of them.
Accordingly, one reacts allergically there. The Greens are threatening the Liberals: either Habeck’s reserve operation or nothing. “In the summer, things couldn’t go fast enough for the FDP,” says Julia Verlinden, a member of the Lower Saxony Bundestag and a member of the Greens parliamentary group. “The draft law is now available, but it is being blocked by the FDP.” That is no longer understandable – and she also does not think that there will be a compromise again. “If the law does not go through the parliamentary process, the nuclear power plants must be shut down as planned in 2022.”
The Greens and FDP are fighting each other because both are in a difficult situation: The Greens are fighting against falling poll numbers, the FDP with the five percent hurdle. Difficult election campaign weeks lie behind the top Green duo Julia Willie Hamburg and Christian Meyer. Even in the summer months, the party achieved a stable 22 percent in polls, the SPD was within reach. After doing well in Saarland and Schleswig-Holstein, the Greens were hoping for their third state election success this year.
The top Greens duo of Julia Willie Hamburg and Christian Meyer hoped for further success of the party at state level.
(Photo: dpa)
When asked about this in the TV trill at the end of September, Hamburg said a result of 20 percent would make her very happy. However, the party is now a long way from that, at 16 percent in polls. If it stays that way, the Greens could still celebrate a historically good result. This would almost double their 2017 result.
For the FDP it’s all or nothing
But the euphoria is gone. Above all, it is unclear whether it is enough for a government participation. The Greens want an alliance with the SPD. Weil is also aiming for red-green. But if the Greens are too weak, he could continue the grand coalition. Or there would also be a traffic light alliance in Lower Saxony.
That’s what the Liberals are banking on. You recently distanced yourself from the CDU and its top candidate Bernd Althusmann during the election campaign. Red-Green can only be prevented with one vote for the FDP – that is the message in the final sprint of the election campaign.
The FDP top candidate wants to prevent a red-green government in Lower Saxony.
(Photo: dpa)
For the Liberals, Lower Saxony is traditionally a state where everything and nothing is possible. In the 1990s, they twice failed to get into the state parliament, and later, from 2003, they governed for ten years in a coalition with the CDU. In 2013, the FDP achieved its best ever result with 9.9 percent, but was kicked out of the state government anyway.
>> Read here: Interview with Prime Minister Weil – “The energy crisis will be significantly more expensive for the state than Corona”
Accordingly, nobody in the party leadership wants to commit themselves now. One hopes for a government opportunity – but at the same time fears the five percent hurdle. One thing is clear: A possible traffic light alliance in Lower Saxony would have difficult prerequisites. The Greens and the FDP are far apart when it comes to energy policy – be it on nuclear power or the fracking of the large gas reserves in the state.
And how does the tough dispute affect the further cooperation of the traffic light coalition in the federal government? Green faction vizin Verlinden says that the “tone in the election campaign” does not change the “trustworthy cooperation” in the federal government. But at some point the nuclear power plant dispute has to be decided. Then it could depend on the party that is now conspicuously holding back during election campaigns: the SPD and its Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
More: The traffic light’s hidden power mechanisms: three high-ranking civil servants keep the coalition running