The diplomat, Germany’s ambassador to Russia until June 2019, sees signs that Putin decided the invasion single-handedly.
(Photo: ullstein bild)
Rüdiger von Fritsch experienced the transformation of Russia into a hegemonic power at close quarters. Vladimir Putin had just had Crimea annexed when von Fritsch took up his post as German ambassador in Moscow. Until 2019, the 68-year-old explained the actions and changes in Russian politics to the federal government.
Despite protestations to the contrary, Russia has attacked Ukraine. Did you think open war was possible?
Unfortunately, that could not be ruled out. The last dangerous thing was that Vladimir Putin’s most recent decisions repeatedly contradicted his own logic when you tried to put yourself in the heads of the Russian leadership.
What exactly do you mean?
The Russian leadership had stated that it was pursuing completely different, more far-reaching goals: such as withdrawing NATO infrastructure from its eastern border and not allowing any other country to join NATO. The attack on Ukraine has made these goals unattainable. The President has also recently been unusually erratic. An example: He publicly promises Chancellor Olaf Scholz that he will adhere to the Minsk Agreement, only to destroy it a few days later with the recognition of the separatist areas – without giving an excuse.
But isn’t this unpredictability also a tactical calculation?
The Russian leadership actually always tries to avoid the obvious lie. The current attack shows that this is no longer the case. There were also increasing indications that Putin really is acting alone. His appearance on Russia’s Security Council showed that. The most important leaders had to let him publicly disavow them. I am afraid that not only Ukraine and the international peace order, but also Russia, this great and wonderful country, falls victim to one man’s obsessions and historical great power fantasies.
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Is what Putin is doing now still a matter of political calculation or is it already a loss of control?
One has to ask on what picture of reality the President’s decisions are based. Obviously on the basis of certain obsessions, experienced – or claimed – humiliations and trauma. His anger, even his vengefulness, increasingly dominates his decisions.
Now the EU and the USA have decided on further sanctions of a new dimension. Will that be enough to keep Putin from escalating further?
That’s extremely difficult to assess for someone willing to use violence at virtually any cost. But unity and determination are extremely important. We had agreements with Russia that we kept. They are now finally waste. Now the willingness of the EU and NATO to stand together and protect their interests and their members is required.
More on the Ukraine war:
The biggest casualty is now Ukraine, helplessly overrun by Russian forces. Shouldn’t Germany have also delivered defensive weapons instead of sending 5000 helmets?
The capabilities and equipment of the Ukrainian armed forces had been significantly improved. But I fear that no matter how well equipped the Ukrainian army, it will not be able to repel a determined attack from the Russian side. Nevertheless, we will also have to have a discussion at home as to whether we can stick to principles that applied under completely different conditions.
Isn’t western Ostpolitik now in ruins?
In the face of an aggressor ready to act, she has reached her limits. Nevertheless, the threefold approach was correct: unity, determination and a willingness to engage in dialogue. The Russian side has decided to crush the latter.
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