According to veteran on-chain analyst Willy Woo, Bitcoin (BTC) market cycles have completely changed and are currently evolving differently than in the past. According to the analyst’s thesis, Bitcoin’s 4-year halving fashion may have changed completely.
Bitcoin is approaching final cycle
cryptocoin.com You can find Willy Woo’s accurate predictions here. In his current analysis, Woo proposed the “End Cycle” concept in October, claiming that Bitcoin’s negative and bullish cycles no longer follow four-year patterns. The main driver of these cycles was the halvings: Bitcoin accumulation increased just before the halving, followed by active distribution, and the bearish cycle began in the interval between halvings. Hints of this trend are starting to emerge, Woo says in a recent tweet:
We are probably seeing the first signs of the “Final Cycle” thesis. There have been 3 relatively short bull and bear markets since the 2019 low. As a result, there is no longer a 4-year cycle.
The ecology of the cryptocurrency market has improved dramatically after the massive institutional investment inflow and Bitcoin has started to move independently of halving periods. Bitcoin’s current “unpredictable march” is mostly due to natural supply and demand in the ecosystem, which explains the significant relationship it has with traditional markets. Bitcoin will likely begin to act in ways similar to emerging market trends as the market discovers more critical elements to watch. According to experts, BTC follows the currencies of growing countries such as Brazil.
The waves are getting shorter
The constant shortening of each BTC wave adds to the “last wave” theory. The first wave of the leading cryptocurrency’s rapid price increase that began in 2010 was the longest, while the second and third waves were significantly shorter.
Alongside the shorter trends, Woo mentioned the 100-day correction that started in April, when most market participants expected the recovery to end and another years-long bear market to begin. This did not happen as the Bitcoin price rose to around $70,000. According to the analyst, predicting the post-halving based on past cycles is not consistent:
I think it’s absurd for investors to claim that previous price performance doesn’t help predict the future. Successful history students are the best investors.
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