In view of the massive tensions in the Ukraine crisis and without the participation of Russia, the 58th Munich Security Conference (MSC) has begun. “Today a new war is threatening – in the middle of our Europe,” warned German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. With its troop deployment, Russia is making an absolutely unacceptable threat.
The nuclear power Russia, meanwhile, announced a maneuver using ballistic missiles. According to the Defense Ministry, the exercise this Saturday is led by President Vladimir Putin. The aim is to test the strategic nuclear weapons for their reliability.
“This crisis is therefore not a Ukraine crisis. It is a Russia crisis,” said the Green politician. If there were a Russian attack on Ukraine, this would have massive consequences for Russia – financially, politically and economically. This also includes the Baltic Sea pipeline Nord Stream 2.
The Russian threat is still real. Provocation and disinformation can quickly escalate. At the same time, Baerbock confirmed that the West was ready for a serious dialogue with Moscow about the security situation in Europe. However, she does not consider the latest response from Moscow to be encouraging. Among other things, Russia had demanded the withdrawal of NATO from the Eastern European member states and threatened “military-technical measures”.
“We remain very concerned that Russia will not choose the diplomatic route out of the crisis,” said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Russia is already working with deliberate provocations, Blinken said, referring to the recent skirmishes in eastern Ukraine. Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko repeated his demand for German arms supplies. However, Baerbock rejects this with reference to German history.
The Ukraine conflict is the focus of the two-day event with more than 30 heads of state and government and around 100 foreign and defense ministers. After there had been signs of a cautious easing in the meantime, the danger of war has risen again. Chancellor Olaf Scholz will comment on this on Saturday. At the same time, the foreign ministers of the seven major industrial nations (G7) want to discuss how to proceed in Munich.
“This is probably the most important security conference in the past 14 years,” said outgoing MSC chairman Wolfgang Ischinger, referring to the risk of war in Eastern Europe. He cannot remember that there had ever been so many crises and conflicts.
Russia and OSCE are “very concerned” about attacks in Donbass
According to the government in Kiev, fighting broke out again in the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, which are controlled by Russian separatists. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke of an alarming and sharp increase in shelling in eastern Ukraine. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) also noted increased violations of the agreed ceasefire.
Russia, which has gathered more than 150,000 soldiers at the Ukrainian border, plans to conduct maneuvers of its nuclear forces on Saturday. US President Joe Biden wants to call his most important allies today. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet his Russian counterpart Lavrov next week. Lavrov, actually a regular guest in Munich, had canceled his participation in the MSC.
The situation in eastern Ukraine is meanwhile escalating: Because of the danger of a military escalation in eastern Ukraine, the Moscow-loyal separatists have asked civilians to flee to neighboring Russia. First, “women, children and elderly people” should be brought to safety, said the head of the Donetsk separatists, Denis Puschilin, in a speech published on Friday. “A temporary departure will save you and your relatives’ lives.”
The separatists accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of wanting to launch an offensive “in the near future”. Kiev has repeatedly denied attack preparations. Only on Friday did the Ukrainian army strictly reject accusations by the insurgents that soldiers were shelling settlements.
Puschilin turned to the residents with the “urgent request” to perceive the “mass, centralized departure”. In consultation with the Russian authorities, accommodation has been provided in the neighboring Rostov region in southern Russia. The Luhansk separatists also ordered such measures.
USA fears migration to Poland
In view of the tense situation, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin warned of a new refugee movement in Europe. “If Russia invades Ukraine, Poland could see tens of thousands of displaced Ukrainians and others pouring across its border trying to save themselves and their families from the horrors of war,” Austin said in Warsaw after a meeting with Poland’s Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak.
Blaszczak said Poland stands ready to help those who would be forced to leave Ukraine if attacked. Poland announced last week that the regional administrations in its country were preparing to take in refugees and preparing emergency shelters.
Ischinger asked the approximately 500 participants to overcome the helplessness that many people felt in view of the numerous crises and conflicts. Anónio Guterres, Secretary General of the United Nations (UN), criticized the fact that the major powers had lost their ability to engage in dialogue and cooperation. In particular, he warned of a military escalation in Ukraine: “That would be catastrophic”. The UN Charter obliges every member to respect the territorial integrity and political sovereignty of other states.
Ischinger rejects allegations of financial interests
For the initiator of the security conference, Wolfgang Ischinger, it is the last security conference that he will chair as chairman after 14 years. His successor is former Merkel advisor Christoph Heusgen. Shortly before the start of the conference, the political magazines “Der Spiegel” and “Politico” accused Ischinger of having mixed up personal financial interests with his post at the security conference.
It is about lobbying by the consulting firm Agora for armaments companies. Ischinger has a 30 percent stake in Agora, but says it has handed over the shares to a trustee (blind trust). “I have an absolutely clear conscience. I’m not guilty of anything,” the diplomat dismissed the allegations.
Criticism, however, came from the Greens and non-governmental organizations. “The reporting makes me go to Munich with a bad feeling,” said defense policy spokeswoman for the Greens, Sara Nanni, and called for “quick clarification” of the facts. “Wolfgang Ischinger should completely withdraw from his consulting firm and resolve the conflict of interest,” demanded Timo Lange from the watchdog organization Lobbycontrol. Alexander Lurz, Greenpeace’s disarmament expert, spoke of a “moral low blow” for Ischinger and questioned the “neutrality of his foreign policy statements”.
With agency material.
More: MSC boss Ischinger warns: Democracies feel increasingly helpless