Brussels, Washington It’s still just a suspicion – but it’s confirmed with every new detail that becomes public. Is Ukraine responsible for the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea? Did Ukrainian combat divers rent a yacht and detonate the pipes with explosives?
These are questions that high-ranking NATO representatives are also dealing with. The track to Ukraine is considered the most likely, as the Handelsblatt learned from Allianz. It is a “very serious matter”.
The initial assumption that Russia blew up the pipeline itself to exacerbate the energy crisis in Europe is now classified as unlikely within NATO. Allianz’s official communication with the media has become correspondingly taciturn. The language rule is that you have to wait for the investigation.
The references to Ukraine’s involvement are extremely inconvenient for NATO: the alliance partners are currently discussing how they can expand support for the country that has been brutally attacked by Russia and how they can keep the promise made in 2008 to include Ukraine in the alliance.
This debate shaped the meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels on Thursday and Friday, to which Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Resnikov also traveled. The government in Kiev has categorically denied knowing about the attacks.
Who exactly is behind the explosions is still unknown.
(Photo: dpa)
However, should it turn out that the Ukrainian leadership knew about the pipeline blasts, and possibly even ordered them, the alliance would have to react – in what form, that is open.
NATO condemned sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines
After the attack in September 2022, NATO released a statement in which it spoke of “deliberate, reckless and irresponsible acts of sabotage” and warned: “Any deliberate attack on the critical infrastructure of the alliance partners would be met with a joint and resolute response.”
So far, and this is repeatedly emphasized in the NATO circle, there is no evidence, only a bad suspicion. Nobody wants to talk about it openly. The federal government is also keeping silent, although Berlin had pushed through the construction of the Nord Stream pipelines against considerable resistance in Eastern Europe in order to get Russian gas cheaply.
“German politicians will be very careful there,” says a long-time diplomat. “There’s no way they want to reopen the Nord Stream debate.” The concern is that the reports will give pro-Russian forces a boost in Europe. “Of course it’s ammunition for them,” explains the diplomat.
>> Read here: “We now live in a more dangerous world” – Handelsblatt interview with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg
Recently, the “Washington Post”, “Zeit” and other media have reported on new details. Accordingly, three months before the explosions at the bottom of the Baltic Sea on September 26, the United States received a warning from the Dutch secret service that a team of combat divers under the command of the Ukrainian General Staff was preparing a bomb attack. The Americans are said to have informed the federal government and warned the Ukrainians not to put the plans into action.
Destruction of both Nord Stream pipelines
The explosions south-east and north-east of the Danish Baltic Sea island of Bornholm ruptured one leg of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which was never commissioned, and both legs of the older Nord Stream pipeline. Photos showing the gas escaping into the atmosphere in circular geysers circulated around the world.
In Germany, the Attorney General took over the investigation. So far, the following information has been leaked: At the beginning of September 2022, several men and possibly a woman set sail with a 15-meter-long boat, the motor sailer Andromeda.
Apparently there were experienced divers on board who could attach several explosive charges to the Nord Stream pipelines – at a depth of 70 to 80 meters. Traces of explosives are said to have been found on board the sailing ship.
According to a report in the “Süddeutsche Zeitung”, investigators have identified a young Ukrainian who is said to have been involved in the attack and who is said to have connections to the Ukrainian military. The German security expert Nico Lange says: “The investigative authorities must follow all leads.” But he still has doubts about the Andromeda trail.
NATO is interested in further support for Ukraine
In fact, many questions remain unanswered: Can such a complex operation be managed with a small diving team? Why did the allegedly highly professional perpetrators leave behind traces of explosives? The possibility that a false trail has been set, perhaps by the Russian secret service, cannot be entirely ruled out.
Whatever happened: “It is in NATO’s own interest to continue supporting Ukraine and to think about security guarantees,” emphasizes Lange. “We’re not talking about concessions to the government in Kiev. It is about defending the security order in Europe against Russian aggression.”
This is one of the reasons why no one in NATO has so far openly made a connection between the outcome of the investigation and Ukraine’s accession prospects – there should be no doubt about solidarity with the country under attack. Demands are even coming from Eastern Europe for Ukraine to be given a specific accession date at the NATO summit in Vilnius as early as July.
Security Guarantees or Security Obligations?
Other NATO countries, including Germany and the USA, reject this. US President Joe Biden’s government is currently concentrating on a mechanism that would allow individual NATO countries to pledge long-term military aid to Kiev – similar to agreements already in place with Israel.
The US is Ukraine’s main supporter.
(Photo: dpa)
In contrast to some European leaders, however, US government officials do not speak of “security guarantees” but of somewhat softer worded “security obligations”. The Biden administration wants to avoid being drawn into a conflict with Russia at all costs.
In the USA’s long-term strategic considerations, Ukraine’s NATO membership would make perfect sense, despite all concerns about an escalation of the conflict with Russia. The US is the mainstay of the country’s defense and economic struggle for survival.
>> Read here: Joe Biden’s three Ukraine problems
Securing Ukraine would be more effective and cheaper if the country were in NATO, says security expert Lange. The alternative is much more complex: namely equipping the Ukrainian armed forces in such a way that they alone would be able to deter Russia.
In these discussions, the revelations about the possible involvement of Ukraine are very disruptive. The unspoken hope now rests on the fact that the investigators will not be able to reconstruct the course of events in a court-proof manner. And that the debate is slowly dying down without the level of knowledge reaching the point where there must be political consequences.
More: Nord Stream – Will the sabotage mystery ever be solved?