International diplomacy is heading towards its temporary peak in mid-November. Then the heads of state and government of the most important industrial and emerging countries and the top representatives of the European Union will meet at the G20 summit on the Indonesian island of Bali. China’s leader Xi Jinping will arrive politically strengthened after his re-election as General Secretary of the Communist Party.
The opposite is probably true for US President Joe Biden, as pollsters expect his party to lose in the midterm elections on November 8th. It is unclear whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will also travel to the island – he may be taking part in the conference via video link.
Such diplomatic high offices always have two dimensions: On the one hand, there is the official summit with all heads of state and government in the meeting room, chaired by the host. On the other hand, there are also the bilateral talks on the fringes of the conference. It could be important that ten guest countries are invited this time, including Ukraine, represented by President Volodymyr Zelensky.
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For many people, the main focus in Bali will be on current and future threats of war – Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the permanent trouble spots of Iran and North Korea, and China’s claim to the “breakaway province” of Taiwan, which Xi recently reaffirmed with martial words. With regard to the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war, President Biden Putin has already warned of an “Armageddon”, an apocalyptic decisive battle.
An agenda of terror
In addition, there is the explosion in the price of fossil fuels, which is a driver of the often double-digit inflation rates, impending famine and immense dangers emanating from the Russian-occupied nuclear power plant near the Ukrainian city of Zaporizhia. There is hardly any other way of putting it: The agenda of the G20 summit on 15./16. November is an agenda of terror.
What can the European Union, Germany and other western democracies do to stem the countless trouble spots in international politics? The German Federal Chancellor, France’s President and Great Britain’s Prime Minister, as well as the head of the EU Commission and the President of the European Council are arriving from Europe. Italy will also be represented. The Prime Ministers of the Netherlands and Spain will be attending as guests. They all must form a unified phalanx and speak with one voice in Bali.
But that alone is not enough. Europe must also carefully coordinate its line with the G7 members USA, Japan, Canada and other democracies. Perhaps some “non-aligned” countries can also be motivated to support the Western position. After all, there are developments in the run-up to the G20 summit that give hope.
So it is gratifying that the Russian annexation of four Ukrainian regions was recently condemned by a large majority by the UN General Assembly. The Egyptian government’s decision to supply an Iris-T air defense system to the Ukrainian armed forces is also positive.
Africa is loyal to China
What is worrying, however, is that the Opec countries and their allies have decided to cut oil production. Overall, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates appear to be generally moving away from the West and heading towards support for Russia – although political heavyweights such as Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Olaf Scholz have antichambred in the Arabian Peninsula.
It is also worrying that the abstention bloc of 35 states – including China, India, Pakistan and 17 African countries – remained largely unchanged at the most recent UN General Assembly, although US Secretary of State Tony Blinken traveled through the African metropolises in the summer with a charm offensive.
Many African countries remain loyal to China because Beijing is building rail lines and highways for them as part of the New Silk Road. They are also groaning under a crushing debt burden as a result of skyrocketing energy and food prices resulting from Russia’s war on Ukraine and the Western sanctions regime. For the democratic heads of government in Bali, unity must be the top priority so that Putin’s divide-et-impera strategy – regardless of whether he shows up at the meeting, allows himself to be connected from home or ignores the summit – does not have a chance.
After all, Putin’s repeated threats that he might use nuclear weapons against Ukraine may appear counterproductive from China’s and India’s point of view. This is especially true if Putin actually uses such weapons. The summit should show the Russian ruler clear red lines on this point as well. At least one harsh warning from China should be taken seriously by Putin. Xi has the greatest influence on him.
Xi Jinping threatens Taiwan
Before the G20 meeting, Chancellor Scholz wants to travel to China with a business delegation at the beginning of November – as the first head of government from the group of G7 countries since the beginning of the corona pandemic. Scholz and his companions are unlikely to be so naïve as not to regard China as a systemic rival. At the same time, they seem to see the People’s Republic as a reliable economic partner. In the case of Russia, this assessment has already been terribly wrong.
That’s why the Chancellor should take deadly seriously when Xi said at the Communist Party Congress in Beijing that he was preparing his country for “dangerous storms.” Scholz should certainly not take Xi’s dictum lightly that he will “never commit himself to renouncing the use of force” with a view to the “unification” of China and Taiwan – an overt threat made by the delegates with the received the strongest applause.
With the attack on Ukraine, Xi’s geopolitical partner Putin decided against Russia’s economic development and in favor of neo-imperial desires to conquer land. As for Xi, we can only hope that he believes the economy and prosperity are more important for staying in power than possible aggression against democratic Taiwan.
But that is not certain. Scholz and all other top Western politicians should therefore make it unmistakably clear to Xi that the high technologies that China needs will only be made available to the People’s Republic in a state of peace.
The preventive US move to no longer supply the People’s Republic with highly developed semiconductors and microchips, apart from a few exceptions, signals how seriously Biden’s government takes the risk of a military escalation between China and Taiwan – the affected semiconductors and microchips can also be used militarily. Scholz and his business delegation should take this as an example.
The author: Günther H. Oettinger is President of United Europe eV He was Prime Minister of Baden-Württemberg and EU Commissioner for Energy, Digital Economy and Society, Budget and Human Resources.
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