Berlin Has Friedrich Merz, as federal chairman, created new impetus in the CDU? Did Olaf Scholz, as the fourth chancellor of the SPD, reanimate the once so proud people’s party in their own home country – or did he harm it?
These questions shaped the discussions at party headquarters in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) even before the election night. And they should also be an important element in the evening battle over the sovereignty of interpreting the election results in the most populous federal state.
The NRW election has always been considered a “small federal election”, as a mood test for the parties in the federal government. 13.2 million people were asked to cast their votes on Sunday. These voices are so important that they have even decided on the chancellor: In 2005, the SPD in North Rhine-Westphalia lost – and with it Gerhard Schröder, the support of the federal government.
In 2017, Angela Merkel secured re-election with Armin Laschet’s surprising election victory. Whatever happens in NRW: It affects the mood – also in the federal parties. If 50 percent of the economy is psychology, it is at least as much in politics.
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The CDU sees the provisional official final result in the state elections at 35.7 percent of the votes (2017: 33.0 percent), while the coalition partner FDP only has 5.9 percent (12.6). The SPD achieved 26.7 percent with top candidate Thomas Kutschaty, significantly less than in 2017 (31.2). The big winners are the Greens with 18.2 percent after last 6.4. They should be more than able to tip the scales to form a government. The AfD came to 5.4 percent (7.4).
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But who now has the mandate of the voters to form a government? “The CDU achieved the hoped-for double success in May,” said CDU executive committee member Jens Spahn to the Handelsblatt. Hendrik Wüst was the election winner “with a strong result” and thus has “a clear government mandate,” said the Westphalian. The head of the CDU employee wing in NRW, Dennis Radtke, also told the Handelsblatt: “The task of forming a new state government clearly lies with Hendrik Wüst.”
In the Union, they remember the words of Olaf Scholz the day after the federal election: He had derived a “clear government mandate” from the fact that his party was 1.7 percentage points ahead of the Union. Armin Laschet wanted to hold coalition talks, but could not prevail. Now it is significantly more.
It is important to clarify who can forge a coalition. Will it be the Union – or will it be the SPD? The Greens and the FDP have kept everything open – in both directions. If libertine black-green succeeds, it would be a success for Friedrich Merz even without the FDP.
He has only been in charge of the fortunes of the CDU since January after Angela Merkel. The 66-year-old would feel confirmed in his way of leading the party. His critics would have to hold back, that would have looked different after a defeat.
But an alliance led by SPD candidate Kuchaty is also possible. “Black and yellow has been deselected,” SPD Secretary General Kevin Kühnert made it clear and promoted cooperation between red and green. With a traffic light government in North Rhine-Westphalia, Olaf Scholz could also increase the pressure on the opposition in the federal government to agree on other controversial issues such as the special fund for the Bundeswehr.
He could claim to have recaptured their former homeland for the SPD, losses or not. Once again, it’s about psychology, about tailwind for the next few months.
pressure from home
The election received national political relevance this year simply because Friedrich Merz (CDU) and Christian Lindner (FDP), two federal chairmen themselves, come from the federal state and have been intensively involved in the election campaign: Lindner appeared in Düsseldorf on Saturday and had repeatedly had to face opponents of the war – just like the other candidates from Berlin.
After numerous appointments, Merz appeared for the last time on Friday and also answered questions from WDR. There he was “very, very confident that we will win this state election, in the sense of: We will remain the strongest parliamentary group in the North Rhine-Westphalian state parliament and will also be given the task of forming the state government.”
Chancellor Scholz himself only had a few campaign appearances, most recently on Friday in Cologne. However, he also used the WDR to spread the message: “The SPD will provide the next Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia.” With the tenor, the SPD leadership was very active in the election campaign, even if there was no real change of mood, especially not in times of war. Kuchaty, however, did not hesitate to advertise with Scholz. “Together for NRW and Germany” was written on a poster with the likeness of the two.
More on the subject of the NRW election:
In view of the war in Ukraine and the impending energy shortages in the number one industrial country, federal political issues had shaped the election campaign like never before. For the chemical, steel, paper and glass industries, the existential question has been in the air for weeks: What will happen to the energy-intensive companies and their countless jobs? Of course, the high energy prices for private households also played a role. And all this in times of climate change, where old plans are no longer valid.
For this reason, CDU leader Merz regularly launched an attack on the SPD and Chancellor Scholz in the Bundestag in Berlin and on the market squares in North Rhine-Westphalia, and even traveled to Kyiv as the leader of the opposition in order to attest to the head of government’s lack of leadership. The draft horse should be lame.
Incumbent Hendrik Wüst was only right for the help from the federal government. He had hardly been able to distinguish himself, since he had only governed the country in place of Armin Laschet since October and was previously a little-known Minister of Transport in his cabinet.
As Prime Minister, Wüst alone had the stage as Chairman of the Prime Ministers’ Conference in order to gain national awareness. Challenger Kutschaty was also largely unknown – although he had already been Minister of Justice in Hannelore Kraft’s cabinet from 2010 to 2017. Both are not people catchers.
But Wüst had at least one small advantage in the last week: the CDU had won outstandingly in Schleswig-Holstein. The success once again mobilized its own campaigners. Prime Minister Daniel Günther even traveled to Altenberge in Münsterland to support Wüst at his final rally. It was another psychological momentum. The next few days will show whether it was enough to govern.
More: All developments on the election in NRW in the current news blog.