Cargo ships are backing up again in front of the port, and containers are gathering on the site.
(Photo: Imago Images)
Berlin The economic slump caused by the Ukraine war is only beginning to be foreseen when the next danger for the economy is already emerging: China’s zero-tolerance policy in the corona pandemic is once again threatening the global economy.
The Asian country is currently struggling with a wave of infections that it has never seen before. The state leadership relies on sealing off entire districts in the event of individual corona cases. In the past, this had already interrupted numerous global supply chains because raw materials and intermediate products were not delivered from China.
The situation is now even more delicate because the Chinese vaccine does not appear to work against the rampant omicron variant. That means that the corona virus is a much bigger problem there than it is here, said Ifo President Clemens Fuest on Wednesday in the ZDF program “Markus Lanz”. “The second major crisis is coming back,” said Fuest.
The world’s largest container port in Shanghai is already acutely affected. The metropolis has been sealed off since the end of March. About 25 million people have been ordered to stay at home.
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Loading is still taking place at the port, but loading is being reduced more and more. Companies in and around Shanghai have to stop their production. Container ships and tankers are therefore already backing up in front of the port:
Although there are waiting times in front of the ports even in normal times, the current dimension in front of Shanghai is completely different. For comparison: the situation in front of Busan in South Korea, after all the sixth largest container port in the world:
An analysis by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) also shows what is still threatening in relation to the other Chinese ports. The corona virus is back in important port cities such as Shenzhen or Ningbo, and further corona waves are unlikely to be avoided. The cities are not yet affected by lockdowns.
The impact of the lockdown on Shanghai compared to the other Chinese megaports clearly shows the enormous impact of the lockdown. Exports from the port of Shanghai have collapsed in recent days and are around 30 percent below the development of the others:
The consequences should not just be limited to China. Rather, as in the previous year, a chain reaction is threatening. Closed Chinese ports caused congestion elsewhere. Many ships could not land at their destinations because deliveries were backed up at the container ports.
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The consequences: Companies around the world were missing materials, whether wood, energy, semiconductors or much more. The materials became considerably more expensive. The damage to the global economy is likely to be in the trillions of dollars. “Should various supply chains collapse again due to China’s Covid policy, the damage to the global economy would be considerable,” says economist Stamer.
His calculations show that this development is just getting under way. At almost twelve percent, the proportion of goods that are on stationary ships and not directly in the ports is already almost as high as at peak times in 2021:
Ifo President Fuest expects that the global chain reaction will no longer be able to be stopped: “One thing is clear: these problems will reach us.” The economic consequences are dramatic.
Graphics: Bernhard Ruthmann
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