Experienced trader Peter Brandt, cryptocurrency He presented a striking analysis that caught the attention of the community. Brandt, present Bitcoin He expressed doubts about the continuation of the bull market. Brandt broke current expectations, suggesting that a possible peak is approaching and potentially serious corrections could be seen.
This assessment, based on historical price cycle data, shows that Bitcoin is not very promising for its near-future market performance.
Brandt’s detailed analysis examines the loss of momentum observed in BTC’s previous bull cycles. According to him, every cycle since the inception of BTC has experienced a rapidly decreasing growth momentum, leading to a situation called “Exponential Decay”. According to Brandt’s claim, as we reported as Koinfinans.com, the peak of the current cycle may be around $72,723, which was briefly reached in March 2024.
Notably, this suggests that the top of the current cycle could be capped around $72,723, touched briefly in March 2024.
In particular, it is becoming apparent that the top of the current cycle may be capped around $72,723, briefly touched in March 2024.
There have been four major bull cycles in Bitcoin, and the current development marks the fifth major bull cycle:
– 21 December 2009 – 6 June 2011 [3,191 kat artış]
– 14 November 2011 – 25 November 2013 [572 kat artış]
– 17 August 2015 – 18 December 2017 [122 kat artış]
– 10 December 2018 – 8 November 2021 [22 kat artış]
– 21 November 2022 – ? (highest ever recorded at $73,835 on March 14, 2024)
Brandt’s analysis focuses on the “exponential decay” in growth rates that is observed from cycle to cycle, with each cycle being approximately 20% of the magnitude of the previous one.
This indicates an 80% reduction in growth momentum and a weakening of the aggressive uptrends previously seen in Bitcoin’s market behavior.
At this point, Exponential Decay rears its ugly head:
– The size of the 2011-2013 period is approximately 20% of the 2009-2011 period
– The size of the 2015-2017 period is approximately 20% of the 2011-2013 period
– The size of the 2018-2021 period is approximately 20% of the 2015-2017 period
In other words, 80% of the exponential energy of every successful bull market cycle has been lost.
