new York Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton has shaped American foreign policy for years – always with a conservative stance. He was Ambassador to the United Nations under President George W. Bush.
Most recently, he was National Security Advisor to US President Donald Trump, who was voted out in 2020. He had fallen out with him and was then fired by Trump. In an interview with the Handelsblatt, he discussed the effectiveness of the sanctions against Russia and the danger of a cyber war.
Mr. Bolton, the US and Europe have repeatedly tightened their sanctions against Russia in recent days. But that didn’t stop Russia from invading Ukraine. What does that mean for the future strategy of the West?
We must state that the prospect of a whole series of sanctions did not deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from his plans. US President Joe Biden warned a week ago that Putin had decided to invade Ukraine. So we have to ask ourselves what is the point of gradually tightening sanctions.
Are the sanctions too weak?
Yes. They’ve been talking for weeks. Which company and which individual has not long since withdrawn assets from the West? The fact that Italy wants to exclude luxury goods from the sanctions speaks volumes. The announcement by Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz to suspend the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline also has political symbolism, but nothing more. After all, the certification had previously been suspended elsewhere.
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What kind of sanctions do you think would have been more effective?
I believe that sanctions are most effective when they are introduced quickly and unexpectedly, and when they are comprehensive and massive and then rigorously enforced. Germany should have made it clear that Nord Stream 2 will never go online until Russia withdraws all troops from Ukraine, but also from Georgia, Moldova and all other countries that do not want them there. But there is a big gap between what the West announces and what is actually done. That won’t stop Putin, just encourage him because he thinks he can get away with it.
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How big is the risk that the conflict will lead to a cyber war between Russia and the West?
The US and NATO have bothered about cyberattacks for years, but there is still no good framework for how to deal with them. There are different levels of escalation and not every cyber attack is an act of war. But under various definitions we have already been attacked, just think of the Russian efforts to influence our elections. This is an attack on our constitutional system. And they’ve done something similar in Baltic countries and I assume they’re very active in many European countries right now.
Russia speaks of “hybrid warfare”.
This is a new kind of warfare and I believe we are vulnerable. When Putin warned a few days ago to leave him alone or face unprecedented consequences, that could have been a warning about both nuclear and cyber attacks.
Do we have to brace ourselves for a protracted conflict?
It’s entirely possible. At the moment, the sanctions are not really noticeable. On the contrary: the rising oil price is even good for Russia and helps to finance the war. I have warned in the past about the alliance between Russia and China, which could further weaken the effects of the sanctions. It is quite possible that financial transactions could be laundered through Chinese banks, giving Russia access to dollars, pounds and euros. It is also unclear what kind of commitments Russia has received from China with regard to energy imports if the West still imposes energy sanctions.
Mr Bolton, thank you for the interview.
More: Garry Kasparov: ‘If Putin Gets Away With Invading Ukraine, There Will Be No Borders’