Christoph Herwartz, correspondent in the Handelsblatt office in Brussels, analyzes trends and conflicts, regulatory projects and strategic concepts from the inner workings of the EU. Because anyone who is interested in business needs to know what’s going on in Brussels. You can reach him at [email protected]
Brussels There are so many scenes in which Poland and the EU are currently quarreling that everything happens at the same time. The way is clear for tough measures against Warsaw, at the same time there are signs of relaxation.
Ursula von der Leyen has promised the Poles that they will soon receive the first payouts from the Corona reconstruction fund. The money is eagerly awaited in Warsaw. It is a total of 36 billion euros. The economic importance of the reconstruction fund is hardly as great in any other EU country as it is in Poland.
In addition, Poland is calling for assistance in closing off the border with Belarus and has threatened to divert refugees to Germany. The EU Commission also has an interest in ensuring that no new escape route is established there. There is hardly anything else that von der Leyen could use less than a new argument about where the refugees should be accommodated.
But the Commission would rather not participate in financing border fences. A disbursement of the reconstruction fund money could motivate Poland to continue the mission at the border, which is questionable under international law, on its own and at its own expense, without involving the EU too much. The time would therefore be good to now provide the Polish government with the first tranche of 4.68 billion euros, to which it is entitled in principle.
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However, the Commission has also had assurances that Poland will first fix something on its broken, reformed judicial system before money flows out of Brussels. However, this has not happened so far, as the European Court of Justice recently stated again and imposed a daily fine of one million euros, which Poland does not pay.
MEPs are suing the Commission
In addition, the Advocate General of the European Court of Justice found no deficiencies in the rule of law mechanism of the EU, which makes it more likely that the EU Commission will use this means in the coming year. That could cost Poland billions.
A large majority of MEPs are already dissatisfied with the fact that the EU Commission has only been waiting for months instead of introducing the rule of law mechanism. Transferring reconstruction funds in this situation would be perceived by many as the ultimate provocation. Legally, however, the MPs fired their powder. You are already suing the Commission for inaction.
The money from the fund could only hold back a majority of the member states. Most of them are not really interested in arguments.
But the new federal government has agreed to take a particularly close look. According to the coalition agreement, the Commission should use the existing rule of law instruments more consistently. It also says that transfers are only accepted on the condition that “conditions such as an independent judiciary” are secured – a clear reference to the current situation with Poland.
If the EU Commission really wanted to pay out money to Poland, it would need at least a concession from the government in Warsaw that something will soon change in the judicial system. It can also emphasize that initially only a first tranche is paid, which can even be reclaimed again if the conditions are not met.
And there is one more thing that Brussels will pay close attention to: the way the check is handed over. Von der Leyen has used the previous permits to pay the respective government a visit and stage it for the cameras. If the EU rushes to help with billions during the crisis, then the citizens should also notice.
A friendly pat on the shoulder of the Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki would have a completely different effect. Morawiecki has not missed an opportunity to rant and threaten the EU in recent months. If von der Leyen smiled away at that, it would perfectly illustrate what many people in Brussels reproach her with: that she likes to talk about values and principles, but gives way in an emergency.
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