Berlin, Brussels Jake Sullivan politely adds that he wants to let the German chancellor speak for himself. But then US President Joe Biden’s security adviser became unequivocal: “If Russia invades Ukraine, Nord Stream 2 will be stopped, one way or another.”
With this interview, broadcast a few hours before Olaf Scholz arrived in Washington, the US government has made one thing clear: it has lost patience with the Germans in the almost endless debate about the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline. If there is a Russian attack on Ukraine, the Americans will do everything in their power to prevent the gas pipeline between Russia and Germany from being put into operation with sanctions – whether the federal government wants it or not.
This makes it clear that the first personal meeting between Scholz and Biden is more than a classic inaugural visit. It is a special meeting in times of crisis, in which the new chancellor in particular has come under criticism. Scholz is accused of acting too cautiously in the Ukraine crisis, and some in the US Congress already consider the German Chancellor to be “unreliable” – mainly because of Nord Stream 2.
When Biden replaced Trump in the White House, the US should have made efforts to repair the transatlantic relationship, says Rachel Rizzo, Europe expert at the Atlantic Council. “Now it seems to be exactly the other way around: It’s the Germans who have to take care of repair work.” That pretty much outlines Scholz’s mission in Washington.
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For Scholz, there is a lot at stake in Washington: the West must send a signal of unity to Moscow. And like Merkel, Scholz must gain the US President’s trust in order to be able to take more initiative in Russia policy.
Discussion about Nord Stream 2 will play a central role
Everyone knows, even in Moscow, that the USA is serious about its threat of sanctions against Russia. It is less clear how serious some EU countries are. On the one hand, this is due to French President Emmanuel Macron, who is accused, particularly in Eastern Europe, of pursuing parallel diplomacy with Russia and possibly even striving for his own security deal with Putin.
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But it is also due to Scholz, who found it difficult to define Nord Stream 2 as a means of sanctions, and who to this day has only hidden that the controversial gas pipeline will not go into operation should the Ukraine crisis escalate. The discussion about the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline will therefore play a central role on the Scholz trip.
The chancellor brought the misery on himself. He repeatedly said that the pipeline should be treated as a “private sector” project, a formulation that caused considerable irritation in Washington.
Observers are curiously awaiting Scholz’s positioning.
(Photo: dpa)
Last summer, Germany and the US agreed on a painstakingly negotiated statement on Nord Stream 2, in which Germany committed “that Russia will not use any pipeline, including Nord Stream 2, to achieve aggressive political goals.”
Even if the text remains vague in parts, the Americans interpret the agreement as an implicit promise that the natural gas pipeline, which has now been completed, will not go into operation in the event of Russian aggression against Ukraine.
Continuation of the policies of the Merkel era
The federal government is also said to have accepted this interpretation: in coalition circles it can be heard that there was an informal commitment that supplements the declaration. Accordingly, ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel assured US President Biden that Nord Stream 2 would not go online if Russia invaded Ukraine. It is said that Merkel also did this on behalf of Scholz.
>> Read here: Russia has the upper hand in the fight for gas – for now
When Scholz had hardly declared the pipeline a non-political matter in office, the Americans feared that the new chancellor wanted to question the painstakingly negotiated Nord Stream 2 compromise. The irritation explains why the criticism of German foreign policy has been so severe in recent weeks.
This also applies to the dispute over military aid for Kiev. Berlin’s refusal to deliver arms to the Ukrainian army is viewed almost as critically in the USA as Nord Stream 2. This reluctance is not a change of course, but the continuation of the policies of the Merkel era, which the Americans had known for a long time. If Scholz had not previously raised doubts about his reliability with his statements on Nord Stream 2, there would hardly have been such a heated debate about it.
Scholz, who claims to speak a clear language, has still not brought himself to combine the words Nord Stream 2 and sanctions in one sentence. When asked about the pipeline, he now replies that “everything can be discussed if there is a military intervention against Ukraine.” He no longer repeats the description of the project as “purely private”. But the new terminology is not a commitment to sanctions either, there is much that can be discussed.
Trip will be Scholz‘ don’t change attitude
It is difficult to explain why Scholz remains vague. Politically it makes little sense. The Americans have long since made a commitment: if the Russian army invades Ukraine, Nord Stream 2 will be unthinkable. Anyone involved in the project will face US sanctions. If there was still a spark of doubt in Berlin about the determination of the USA, Biden’s national security adviser Sullivan has now wiped it away with his interview.
The focus of the visit is the discussion about the controversial Baltic Sea pipeline.
(Photo: Reuters)
The EU Commission is similarly robust. The fate of the pipeline “depends on the behavior of Russia,” Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen made clear in an interview with the Handelsblatt.
According to government circles, Scholz will not change his stance on his trip to the USA, nor will he shift his emphasis – for example with a clearer rejection of Nord Stream 2 in the event of a Russian invasion. The German side also does not expect US President Biden to put pressure on Scholz in this direction at the meeting.
Sullivan’s interview speaks a different language. Scholz runs the risk of giving the impression that he is fighting for a lost cause. The idea that Germany had the political option of inaugurating Nord Stream 2 against the declared wishes of its closest partners while Ukraine is being overrun by Russian tanks is downright absurd. Especially since Scholz’s coalition partners, the Greens and the FDP, who have long been critical of the pipeline, would never support such a policy.
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