The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) announced its new estimates for Turkey’s economic performance. According to the OECD’s latest “Economic Outlook” report, 2023 and 2024 expectations for the Turkish economy have been changed.
The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) expectation for 2023 was positively updated and increased from 2.8 percent to 4.3 percent. However, expectations for 2024 were revised downwards and the GDP forecast was reduced from 3.7 percent to 2.6 percent.
The OECD predicts that economic activities will temporarily retreat due to the impact of earthquakes earlier this year. However, growth is expected to pick up again as restructuring spending increases.
Establishment inflation forecasts have also been updated. Inflation expectation for the end of 2023 was increased from 44.8 percent to 52.1 percent, but the inflation forecast for the end of 2024 was reduced from 40.8 percent to 39.2 percent.
Additionally, core inflation forecasts, which do not include food and energy prices, were also revised. Core inflation expectation for 2023 was increased from 46.3 percent to 56.7 percent, and for 2024 it was increased from 40.0 percent to 41.2 percent.
HSBC: Growth in the Turkish Economy Will Start to Slow Down Next Year!
HSBC, the UK-based giant financial services company, revised its expectations regarding Turkey’s growth and interest rates with a report it published.
According to HSBC’s report, the latest developments regarding the Turkish economy and the measures taken by the economic management affect the monetary policy expectations of foreign investors of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). In this context, HSBC increased its year-end policy interest rate expectation from 30 percent to 32.5 percent.
HSBC forecasts Turkey’s growth expectations for 2023 4.4 percent while maintaining its 2024 GDP growth forecast as from 4.1 percent to 3 percent dropped it.