Neighboring states balance between peace and conflict

Tehran/New Delhi/Cairo Blazing heat, drought and sandstorms plague residents in the border region of Afghanistan and Iran. Water is sometimes so scarce in the provinces that tankers bring it to the villages.

Now, at the end of May, the region became the scene of a bloody skirmish. An exchange of fire turned the border region into a battlefield. Just a few days earlier, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi had threatened the Taliban in a dispute over the water of an important border river.

Not far from the border posts is the Hamun Lake Biosphere Reserve. Old photos of the ecosystem with glittering water surface and flamingos are reminiscent of the beauty of what was once the third largest lake in Iran.

Today, pictures of the area show dried up fish and abandoned boats. In the middle of the lake lie legendary ruins, where a German archaeologist once researched ancient Persia.

One reason for the drought: the water of the more than 1,000-kilometer-long Helmand River in neighboring Afghanistan, which flows into Lake Hamun, is being dammed on the Afghan side.

“For many years, people in the north of the province benefited from the Helmand water and engaged in agriculture, fishing and animal husbandry,” says Iranian MP Mohammed Sargasi. Many residents have since moved away.

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An agreement from 1973 is supposed to regulate the use of the Helmand water. In the course of global warming, however, Afghanistan is also affected by drought. “We don’t even have enough water to drink,” complains a resident of Nimrus province. Completed in 2021, the prestigious dam project will provide the province with electricity and irrigation for agriculture.

Environmental researcher sees potential for more cooperation

Lena Partzsch, Professor of Political Science at Freie Universität Berlin, also sees potential for cooperation. “When water wars occur, it’s more of a self-fulfilling prophecy,” warns the environmental researcher. “I’m not pessimistic because I think water is primarily a resource that encourages cooperation,” she affirms.

One sign is that the Taliban were in Iran last year in the Helmand dispute. “It would be important to create space for negotiations and institutions instead of investing in armaments,” says Partzsch. Climate change, changed water resources – we have to adapt to them, says Partzsch. “Not only technically, but in harmony between man and nature.”

An Afghan water expert is also hoping for more cooperation. “In Sistan and Balochistan, the evaporation rate is high,” says Najibullah Sadid. Cooperation would be conceivable, especially in the area of ​​agriculture. “It makes sense to grow where it works. Waste of water must be prevented.”

Ethiopia’s dam and its political explosiveness

Northeast Africa also shows how explosive the issue of water can be: Ethiopia’s dam, which is set to become the largest in Africa after its completion in 2024 or 2025, has its regional neighbor Egypt fearing for its water supply from the Nile and for domestic agriculture.

The dispute over how the reservoir will be filled and how much water will flow down the Nile in the future has, at least verbally, repeatedly moved in the direction of a possible military escalation. Egypt covers more than 90 percent of its water needs from the river.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who initially sounded more forgiving, seems to be losing patience in the long-standing dispute. From Cairo’s point of view, Ethiopia refuses to be mediated and is playing for time. “Let’s not reach a point where (the brothers in Ethiopia) touch a drop of Egyptian water because all options are on the table,” Al-Sisi said. “Unthinkable instability in the region” could otherwise follow.

The power struggle in Sudan, which is also affected – between Egypt and Ethiopia – makes mediation even more complicated. Since April, the president has been fighting with the army and the former vice president with the RSF militia (Rapid Support Forces) for leadership. Given the confusing situation in Khartoum, a three-way agreement with Cairo and Addis Ababa is almost impossible.

India and Pakistan – Old enemies face new challenges

A dispute over several common rivers is also smoldering between India and Pakistan, which are threatened by water shortages and drought. The most famous of them is the Indus – the main river of Pakistan, which has its source in Tibet and flows through the Indian part of the Kashmir region.

A cooperation agreement brokered by the World Bank has existed for more than 60 years. The two nuclear powers have already fought several wars with each other over other conflicts. The agreement was seen by many experts as a glimmer of hope and a rare consensus between the warring nations.

But in January, India suddenly demanded an amendment to the agreement. At the center of the dispute are once again large dam projects. Pakistan sees a problem for its water supply in the Indian hydropower projects in the Kashmir region.

“The deal was a great agreement in the 1960s,” says a government official in Islamabad. After all, it survived wars and political tensions. Today there are new challenges. India, on the other hand, accuses the neighboring country of being uncompromising.

Pervaiz Amir, climate expert in Pakistan, calls for a quick rethink. “Considering that all glaciers in the northern regions of Pakistan and India will disappear by the end of this century if they continue to melt at the same rate, and that they are the main source of the water in the rivers, Pakistan and India must now talk to each other,” says Amir.

“It’s a purely technical issue, but it has the potential to spark conflict or even war in the future.”

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