London A dispute within the ruling Conservatives in London prevents an agreement in the Northern Ireland dispute with the EU. “We are in intensive talks with the EU,” British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said during question time in the House of Commons on Wednesday. As a staunch “Brexit supporter and Unionist”, he will ensure that Great Britain’s sovereignty is respected, that Northern Ireland’s place in the kingdom is secured and that “practical solutions” are found to the outstanding issues.
Sunak’s assurances were primarily aimed at the Brexit hardliners in his own party and the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Critics within the party are urging the Prime Minister to end the European Court of Justice’s (ECJ) jurisdiction over Northern Ireland altogether and – if Brussels does not agree – to threaten to unilaterally withdraw from the mutually agreed Northern Ireland Protocol. The EU has announced trade sanctions for this case.
Brussels and London originally wanted to present their deal this week. However, it doesn’t look like that at the moment. If both sides do not find a solution by Thursday, the political impasse will continue next week.
In the 2020 withdrawal agreement, Great Britain and the EU agreed that Northern Ireland would remain in the EU internal market, which means that the ECJ still has the last word in trade disputes in the Northern Irish province. However, London wants to subsequently change the Northern Ireland Protocol agreed at the time in such a way that trade barriers between Northern Ireland and the rest of Great Britain are removed and the political unity of the kingdom is preserved.
Brussels and London had largely agreed in recent weeks to reduce customs controls on goods that are delivered from Great Britain to Northern Ireland and remain there. However, the future role of the ECJ remains controversial.
While the right wing of the governing Tories no longer wants European judges to regulate them after leaving the EU, diplomats say that Brussels cannot do without the legal integrity of the European internal market. As a factual part of the internal market, Northern Ireland must also adhere to the standards and rules of the EU.
DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson speaks in front of a hotel in Belfast (archive photo).
(Photo: Reuters)
Opposition leader Keir Starmer asked the prime minister to admit that European judges would continue to have a say in the Northern Irish province. However, Sunak avoided replying directly and would not confirm that he would remove the threat, now packaged into a legislative initiative, to unilaterally break the Northern Ireland Protocol as soon as an agreement with Brussels had been reached.
DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson called on the head of government not only to “improve” the controversial Northern Ireland Protocol, but to change the text of the treaty. Sunak did not want to answer this directly either, saying only that “the democratic deficit” was an important subject of the negotiations. Earlier, Donaldson urged the prime minister to show “more courage” in talks with Brussels.
British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly and EU Deputy Maros Sefcovic want to try again in the coming days to break the impasse in the negotiations. It won’t be easy: Brussels doesn’t want to change the Brexit Treaty under any circumstances, also because all 27 EU members might have to agree to it. Although one can envisage a regulation in the EU that gives the courts in Northern Ireland a stronger role in disputes, the Commission does not want to give up its right to go directly to the ECJ in the event of a dispute. Brussels also wants to avoid a politically risky vote in the British House of Commons.
Since Wednesday, however, it has been questionable whether Sunak can avoid it. “Parliament will be able to express its will,” he promised ambiguously on Wednesday. The head of government finally wants to have the annoying dispute with the EU off the table so that he can then work more closely with European partners on issues of external security, energy supply and migration.
Northern Ireland deal would help economy
Economists also expect economic benefits from a Northern Ireland deal: If the Brexit uncertainty is removed, companies could use more money for investments, said Kallum Pickering from Berenberg Bank in London.
The non-partisan Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has identified the post-Brexit uncertainties as an obstacle to investment. According to calculations by the OBR, leaving the EU could reduce gross domestic product per capita in Great Britain by around four percent within 15 years.
However, Sunak is being prevented from reaching a deal with Brussels because of the deep ideological rift over relations with Europe that has divided the ruling Tories for decades and has already brought down several prime ministers. Ex-Prime Minister Boris Johnson, of all people, who negotiated the Brexit deal with the EU, is now one of the biggest critics of the deal and could pose a threat to Sunak.
Over the past few days, Johnson has expressed his dissatisfaction with the outcome of the negotiations through confidants and called on his successor not to give up the threat of terminating the Northern Ireland Protocol.
Former British Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne suspects Johnson’s desire to become Prime Minister again behind the attacks. Johnson is supported above all by members of the so-called European Research Group (ERG), in which the hard Brexit advocates have gathered.
The Northern Irish DUP also has a key role in the political struggle. The pro-London Unionists have refused to allow a government to be formed in the Belfast regional parliament for over a year. DUP leader Donaldson has been emphasizing for weeks that his party will only end the blockade once their demands for a fundamental change in the Northern Ireland Protocol have been met.
The 1998 Good Friday Agreement that ended the civil war between nationalists and unionists in the province of Northern Ireland requires both communities to agree to a new government. April 10 marks the 25th anniversary of the peace agreement. US President Joe Biden could come for this occasion, but has made an agreement between London and Brussels a prerequisite.
More: Sunak’s political destiny will be decided in Northern Ireland