In view of this result, so many stones have fallen from Europe’s hearts that they could trigger a tsunami in the English Channel. The horror visions that something like Donald Trump’s triumph or Brexit could happen again have not come true. But who is really the winner here and who is the loser?
- It has become clearer than feared, which speaks for Macron. He is the first president to win re-election in 20 years, but he is unpopular with the general public. “I know that many compatriots voted for me, not to support me, but to erect a bulwark against the extreme right,” he said.
- Le Pen speaks of a “radiant victory” and that her Rassemblement National party is the “only real opposition”. In fact, five years ago she only got 34 percent in the runoff, and her father Jean-Marie only got 18 percent in 2002. So one has to fear: The National Front, which is now called something else, will become socially acceptable.
- The real loser in this election is democracy. Voter turnout has fallen by a good three points compared to 2017 to just 72 percent, the lowest level in decades.
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Macron is just a (small) winner of the moment. Parliament will be elected in two rounds on June 12th and 19th. And there it is more than questionable whether Macron’s “La République en Marche” pact can again secure the most seats in parliament.
The boyish charm of departure is gone. The mostly young fans of the popular left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon are hoping that the fragmented left camp can be united. The “third round of voting” is now beginning, Mélenchon announced last night. Macron’s “presidential monarchy” only survived for lack of an alternative. That’s right: Last night we thought briefly about Albert Camus. He wrote: “We do not lack emperors, only personalities.”
The real sensation happened more than 1000 kilometers southeast of Paris in Ljubljana: There, the opposition Freedom Movement (GS) led by liberal newcomer Robert Golob, 55, won the Slovenian parliamentary elections with around 34 percent, well ahead of Prime Minister Janez Jansa, 63, and his right-wing populist SDS (24 percent). “People want change and have given us their confidence to bring about change,” said the election winner, who was a former manager of an electricity company.
Golob can count on the help of several centre-left parties to form a government. For Jansa, on the other hand, it didn’t pay off to sound either like Viktor Orban or like his biggest idol, Trump. His slogan “No experiments” seemed like a relic from the Adenauer era.
The Republic is still puzzling over an article in the New York Times, which has now followed the author’s two audiences with Gerhard Schröder in Hanover. The image of a stable male friendship with Vladimir Putin (soccer! wine!) is manifested here. We have known since then that he also allegedly wants to end the war (probably after the capitulation of Kiev, Moldova and Georgia).
In terms of Russia policy, Putin’s German supervisory board (Nord Stream, Rosneft) subtly reminded the New Yorker Weltblatt of the pressure exerted by the industry – and the accompanying jubilation of the media: “In the last 30 years they have all participated. But suddenly everyone knows better.”
Where Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has meanwhile apologized profusely for all his Putin errors, former Chancellor Schröder is unflinching in a taciturn manner: “I’m not making a mea culpa. That’s not my thing. ”For the SPD, their former hero is becoming a greater burden than Thilo Sarrazin ever was.
Union parliamentary group leader Friedrich Merz wants to test the matter of suitability for chancellor this week with an application in the Bundestag. He demands that heavy weapons be delivered to Ukraine “immediately and noticeably” – he no longer wants to bring the initiative solo, but together with the SPD, FDP and Greens.
“Armoured weapon systems (including battle tanks and armored personnel carriers) and artillery systems, long-range reconnaissance equipment, command and control equipment, protective equipment and means for electronic warfare” were to be delivered from the Bundeswehr stocks, it said. A task force “made up of experts from the procurement office of the Bundeswehr” should support Ukraine. According to Merz, it is “our humanitarian imperative” to put an end to the Russian “craze of annihilation”. SPD leader Lars Klingbeil accuses the CDU general colleague of “riots in the opposition” and “party-political slapstick” because of his application process.
Perhaps company cars are still more of a status symbol than the famous corner offices. But the times are over when such a driving privilege could serve as proof that the daughter’s boyfriend was fit for a son-in-law. One thing is certain: the group of passionate company car drivers suffers greatly in times of delivery bottlenecks and high fuel prices.
Our survey of Dax corporations and medium-sized companies shows that companies now have to ask their mobility-friendly staff to drive their old company cars longer because there are not enough new vehicles. At Deutsche Bank, extensions of up to one year are not uncommon, at Eon you have to wait 14 months for an electric car. And the Darmstadt-based pharmaceutical company Merck allows employees to fill up at mostly cheaper free gas stations instead of branded gas stations. Conclusion: A Bahncard 100 and a fancy e-bike are probably the true new status symbols anyway.
And then there is the scandalous Swiss bank Credit Suisse, which is about to end a turbulent week with a general meeting on Friday. Norges Invest, the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund from Norway, is demanding a special investigation into the recent explosive events. It has already been circulated that Chief Financial Officer Franz Mathers, Asia Director Helman Sitohag and Chief Legal Officer Romeo Cerutti are saying goodbye in Zurich.
Among other things, the crash of the Archegos hedge fund cost the bank five billion dollars in capital. Recently there was even the second profit warning in three months. In the USA, on the other hand, there is a risk of the status as a “qualified asset manager” being revoked and with it the loss of lucrative business with US pension funds. If CEO Thomas Gottstein, 58, is not careful, his chair could soon be taken elsewhere.
Finally, one of Voltaire’s words of wisdom applies: “When it comes to money, everyone has the same religion.”
I wish you a good start into the week.
It greets you cordially
Her
Hans Jürgen Jakobs