Macron has pushed France forward with economic reforms, and many of his compatriots have benefited from the development.
(Photo: IMAGO/PanoramaC)
The majority of the French have decided against economic and social isolation. Emmanuel Macron has beaten Marine Le Pen more clearly than expected. He gets a second term, the first head of state since Jacques Chirac two decades ago. First of all, this is a success for the President.
Macron has pushed France forward with economic reforms, and many of his compatriots have benefited from the development. The distorted image of the “president of the rich” that his opponents hold against him does not change that.
His unwavering commitment to a strong and independent Europe on the world stage is the right answer to the global upheavals. Macron’s re-election is good news for Germany and the EU.
But the relief at the mild outcome should not hide the fact that France is deeply divided. Macron’s room for maneuver in his second term is limited, and his will to reform threatens to flag under domestic political pressure.
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As a reminder, in the first ballot two weeks ago, more than 50 percent of the French voted for candidates from the right or left fringe. In the runoff, Le Pen got more than 40 percent, the right-wing camp has never done better. Voter turnout fell again. The bulwark against extremes is becoming more fragile. This is worrying.
The danger that France will drift away is not banned
According to the analyzes of the election researchers, Macron has the greatest support among executives and senior citizens. Workers and ordinary employees, on the other hand, vote for the right-wing populists.
To put it bluntly: Macron is the president of pensioners and higher earners; Le Pen is the favorite of the French, who run the country every day but feel left behind. It is a chasm that a society cannot endure indefinitely. The danger that Germany’s most important partner in the EU will drift away has by no means been averted.
Macron must do something about the split – and faces a dilemma. On the evening of the election, he signaled that he wanted to respond more to the displeasure of the population and spoke humbly of a “new approach”. However, he will not reach his critics with changed communication alone.
Macron started his first term with ambitious structural and tax reforms to make the country more competitive and unleash the potential of the economy. These policies have resulted in robust growth and a sharp drop in unemployment, a sharp rise in foreign investment and a wave of business start-ups.
Instead of continuing on the current path, the experience of the election could tempt the president to fill in the rifts in the country with government spending programs. Macron has already hinted that Le Pen’s purchasing power issue will be a priority in the coming months. Studies show that the disposable income of the French has increased more under him than under his two predecessors over the past five years.
Important tasks are in danger of being left behind
The pressure for a change of policy would be even greater if his party did not get its own majority in the parliamentary elections in June and Macron had to come to terms with left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, for example. Important tasks, above all a reform of the French pension system, are in danger of falling by the wayside.
>> Read more: Emmanuel Macron – A man who prefers to be in the front row
The President’s EU agenda could also take a back seat. And Macron’s social promises, which got out of hand in the final phase of the election campaign, raise doubts that France is serious about returning to a more solid budgetary policy, given that the debt level is now 115 percent of gross domestic product.
The joy in Berlin about Macron’s re-election is still great, Chancellor Olaf Scholz called his colleague on Sunday evening as the first foreign congratulator. However, the French President could prove to be an uncomfortable partner for Germany in his second term.
More: Breathe a sigh of relief in Brussels and Berlin – Macron clearly prevails over Le Pen