China is silently observing the meeting of Russian and North Korean rulers.
(Photo: via REUTERS)
Wordless and flowery. This is what the spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said when journalists asked her about the meeting between Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin. China and North Korea are friendly neighbors, “connected by mountains and rivers.” Otherwise, the talks between the North Korean dictator and the Russian president are not Beijing’s concern.
The response is a model of eloquent silence on an extremely sensitive matter for China. Beijing is exercising restraint – and is suspiciously watching the new, old liaison between Russia and North Korea in its immediate vicinity. As the largest trading partner and de facto protecting power of the dirt-poor, Stalinist-ruled North Korea, Beijing does not want its influence over Pyongyang to be diminished, especially not by its regional rival Moscow.
The fact that Putin extends his hand to the North Korean and Kim gratefully accepts it should come as no surprise to anyone in the Chinese capital. Even during the time of the country’s founder, Kim Il Sung, North Korea was hardly a reliable ally, always cherry-picking between China and Russia.
Kim senses his big opportunity
This is also evident now, the ruler of North Korea senses his great opportunity: If Kim and Putin agree on an arms deal and Russia supplies high-tech parts for the North Korean satellite and missile program in return for Soviet-made artillery shells, that would be a radical violation against UN sanctions. Sanctions that China (and also Russia) once supported in the UN Security Council.
Such a step would be the ultimate taboo-breaking, even in times of taboo-breaking in international politics. Beijing would hardly be able to avoid publicly condemning this deal. Ultimately, the People’s Republic wants to remain neutral in the Ukraine war and continue to credibly criticize the arms deliveries from the USA and its allies.
But it’s not that simple, China is in a dilemma. Because Kim and Putin are definitely playing into the hands of Beijing’s strategic ambitions. China and Russia are united by their desire to disrupt or even abolish the Western-dominated world order. That is why Beijing has no interest in Russia losing the war against Ukraine, which is supported by the West with money and weapons. Weapons and ammunition from North Korea could help Putin win the war – and no one in China would get their hands dirty.
If Putin supplies energy, high technology and food in return, he could stabilize North Korea, which is barely able to feed its own population. This, in turn, is also in the interests of China, which fears little more than the collapse of its smaller neighbor. At the same time, Beijing wants to curb Kim’s nuclear power ambitions without weakening him. An uncertain situation that is making China sit up and take notice.
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