Tokyo North Korea fired a medium-range missile over Japan in October. Then leader Kim Jong Un tested two long-range cruise missiles, which North Korea says can be equipped with nuclear weapons. Security analyst Joseph Cirincione, a member of the American Council on Foreign Relations, is alarmed.
“North Korea is committed to building a modern and versatile nuclear deterrent,” he said. “Kim’s rocketry is world class and the nuclear weapons are good enough.” Among those advanced weapons is the recently tested Hwasong-12 intermediate-range missile.
Experts have been expecting for months that North Korea could demonstrate its technological capabilities with a seventh nuclear test. The period after the US midterm elections in November is seen as a possible period to increase political impact.
Another nuclear test could spell another crisis on the Korean peninsula. After the sixth test in 2017, the situation quickly escalated to the brink of armed conflict.
Cirincione explains how great the danger of a nuclear armament in South Korea and Japan is, what Ukraine has to do with it and how the West can react to the growing threat.
How big is the risk of another nuclear test?
The analyst expects North Korea to test at least one nuclear bomb and later more missiles. “I’m usually an optimist, but the prospects are bleak,” he says. “Right now there is no way to stop North Korea.” The country’s military capabilities are becoming increasingly diverse. “The situation will worsen and become more dangerous.”
The fear of an escalation in East Asia is growing.
(Photo: dpa)
According to him, an important reason is the growing tensions between the USA and China as well as the People’s Republic’s solidarity with Russia. Unlike in 2017, North Korea’s protective powers China and Russia are therefore not prepared to support further sanctions by the United Nations.
What weapons could North Korea test?
It is currently unclear how reliable the North Korean long-range missiles are. Cirincione believes that Kim can be reasonably certain of achieving goals in the USA. Nevertheless, he needs further tests.
Many observers expect North Korea to rely on tactical nuclear weapons. These have a relatively small explosive power and are used on the battlefield. The danger is real for Cirincione. “South Korea has reason to be very concerned.”
Cirincione is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and has served as vice president of the Center for American Progress, director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank, and president of the Plowshares Fund, which campaigns against the proliferation of nuclear weapons and their use in conflict.
(Photo: Getty Images)
The dictatorially ruled country could also test a hydrogen bomb for the first time. “North Korea has long claimed that they can build hydrogen bombs, but many experts doubt that,” says Cirincione.
The plutonium bombs tested so far, which are based on nuclear fission, reached a maximum explosive power of 40 to 50 kilotons. If North Korea wants to achieve a higher explosive power of more than 100 kilotons, the country must develop hydrogen bombs based on nuclear fusion. The traditional nuclear powers have 150 to 400 kiloton bombs in their arsenals. “That’s exactly what North Korea wants, then the missile doesn’t have to hit very precisely.”
What is North Korean leader Kim Jong Un up to?
According to Cirincione, North Korea has three goals. First, the country is not developing nuclear weapons and missiles as a signal, but as a real military program. Second, the leadership does not want to be ignored internationally. Third, it is about building pressure and negotiating power when, from the North Korean perspective, the time is right for talks.
North Korea recently declared a nuclear first strike permissible by law. Cirincione sees no signs of such a step. Kim is “neither crazy nor an apocalyptic leader”. For him, it’s all about deterrence.
Why can the tests hardly be stopped diplomatically?
The United States has repeatedly emphasized that North Korea is currently not responding to offers of talks. The reason for Cirincione, however, is the failure of the American North Korea policy. US President George W. Bush destroyed a 1994 framework agreement that was able to slow down North Korea’s program. “But nothing has replaced it.”
Trump had advocated first negotiating a peace treaty with North Korea.
(Photo: imago images/ZUMA Wire)
Since then, US policy has fluctuated relatively haphazardly between Barack Obama’s strategic patience and Donald Trump’s strategy of maximum pressure and subsequent summit diplomacy. President Joe Biden moves between the poles, says Cirincione.
Why is the Ukraine war important for the future of East Asia?
One of the biggest concerns is a nuclear domino effect in a region. In South Korea, for example, nuclear armament is being talked about more and more openly. Cirincione believes that Japan could also have a nuclear upgrade.
How the East Asian countries behave on nuclear issues depends on their trust in the US ally, says Cirincione. The Ukraine war is an important factor here. “If Ukraine prevails, Russia will be weakened,” explains Cirincione. This would also affect China’s position, as the country has not backed away from its strategic partnership with Moscow despite the war.
The USA, on the other hand, would look strengthened as allies of the Ukrainians. “Nobody would want to break with the US, for example by arming themselves with nuclear weapons,” says the analyst. If Russia wins the war, however, the math works the other way around.
Another variable is the outcome of the US elections in November. If the Republicans succeed in gaining a majority in both the House of Commons and the Senate, the United States or the foreign policy decisions of the US Congress, which are shaped by domestic politics, could become paralyzed. A second term for Donald Trump is another possibility that has U.S. allies worried.
What can the West do?
Some Western security experts are now arguing for North Korea to be recognized as a nuclear-weapon state. Cirincione doesn’t think the US government is ready for this, fearing that nuclear weapons could spread further. This speaks in favor of “maintaining the long-term goal of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and in return trying to develop a phased plan to limit the nuclear program”.
The security analyst sees the treatment of the de facto nuclear states of Israel, India and Pakistan as examples of this policy. These are not officially recognized by the USA as nuclear powers under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Nevertheless, they are being negotiated with.
Cirincione also considers it an option to first negotiate a peace treaty, as suggested by former US President Trump, and then to gradually introduce denuclearization measures. There is no guaranteed disarmament with this option either. Cirincione is primarily concerned with at least slowing down North Korea’s programs.
Is North Korea supplying weapons to Russia for its war against Ukraine?
US intelligence reports that North Korea is selling artillery shells and rockets to Russia. The supplies could meet an urgent need: export controls and sanctions imposed by the West have severely limited Russia’s ability to produce its own key military goods.
In return, North Korea hopes to import more Russian oil, receive economic aid and revive the close partnership it used to have with Russia. This is reflected in the new formulation that Pyongyang uses to describe its relationship with Moscow: a “tactical and strategic cooperation”. However, Cirincione sees no signs that the North Korean aid goes further than possible arms deliveries.
More: Korea’s New Deal shows how the state and corporations want to occupy future industries