Christian Böllhoff is managing partner of the Basel research institute Prognos.
(Photo: Imago, Prognos AG)
In 1993 the film “Groundhog Day” was released in cinemas. In it, the ill-tempered weather presenter Phil Connors finds out that he has to experience the same day over and over again. When the radio alarm goes off at six in the morning, February 2nd begins again. Everything repeats itself. Phil is caught in a time warp.
I am often reminded of this film now. There are two main reasons for this. One reason has to do with the constant alarmism. We may live in special times characterized by constant volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. Everything is superimposed. The overall picture is disturbing.
But especially in this country there seems to be a habit of stylizing every problem as a crisis, of course with Damocles potential. Crises are like microbes: the closer you look, the more you find.
The boom in crisis diagnoses has annoying consequences. Many decision-makers are just trying to maintain the present with short-term solutions. Lift your eyes, look ahead, find perspectives – there is no time for that. The constant alarm, on the other hand, distracts from necessary changes. This is not how a sustainable future is created.
It’s not about obsessive optimism or belittling the badness of the world. Despite and because of all the upheavals, we must not forget how to search this world for opportunities. To do this, we must shake off excessive pessimism and take a closer look at what needs to be changed and what opportunities this opens up.
Calling for the state has become fashionable
In addition to the incessant crisis mode, there is something else that reliably keeps me trapped in the endless loop: the fashionable call for the state. It always sounds reliable when, for example, a major reform is being discussed somewhere in the world, be it in Brussels, Berlin, Washington or Beijing – regardless of whether it is about the environment, digitization or trade. From now on there are no more surprises for me.
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Then the loop begins: someone will step in front of a camera, see the forthcoming transformation as a “tremendous challenge”, point out “enormous additional costs”, possibly speak of “unfair competition”, perhaps even of “considerable risks for prosperity and competitiveness”. – and then, one suspects, to demand state support for the affected economic sector.
It always works according to the same pattern: If a further challenge is added to the existing difficulties, even in once proud industries the sense of possibility bids farewell. For this, great state woe sets in. This is also unusual because the same people in the same industries always demand less government in good economic times.
The author of this guest post
Aren’t entrepreneurs people who start things that others find too difficult, too uncertain, too risky? Doesn’t entrepreneurial skill include accepting new situations and solving problems? “All life is problem solving” is the name of a programmatic book by Karl Popper.
Crises cannot be overcome with a fully comprehensive mentality
In any case, the constant calls for state aid have nothing to do with independence and personal responsibility. In the middle of the alleged permanent apocalypse, Germany seems to be becoming a fully comprehensive republic. This is how crises can be managed, they cannot be overcome.
The author says that in the middle of the alleged permanent apocalypse, Germany seems to be becoming a fully comprehensive republic.
(Photo: dpa)
By the way, it’s worse than being stuck in an endless loop to think you’re stuck in an endless loop, even though you know it isn’t one. In fact, every few weeks or months something is conjured up into another crisis – then someone calls for the state and waits for them to help. Instead, the state should do its homework with all its might: education, infrastructure and administration need comprehensive updates.
Luckily, Hollywood movies have happy endings. In “Groundhog Day” everything stays the same until TV weatherman Phil Connors realizes that repetition doesn’t mean doing the same thing over and over again and hoping that something will improve as a result. That nothing becomes good by itself.
That changes everything. The spell is broken. The time warp dissolves. Life goes on on February 3rd – and fortunately not only on the date.
The author: Christian Böllhoff is managing partner of the Basel research institute Prognos.
More: The state as savior in every crisis? About the fatal error of the fully comprehensive policy.