Plastic bulls stand in front of the Dax chart in the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The chances of a year-end rally soon are good.
(Photo: Reuters)
Equity investors know the pitfalls of the unpredictable. But currently the risks are manageable: The situation on the German stock market has brightened significantly, the risks of further price losses have decreased. The starting signal for the year-end rally should be given in November at the latest. And that means: In the coming weeks, weaker prices will turn into buying prices.
A year-end rally is not a matter of course – even if the statistics promise otherwise. The success rate that the stock market achieved a plus in the last two months of a year is at least 65 percent – at least on average.
What is more striking are the recent losses: since 2015 there has only been one year in which investors could have raked in profits with the Dax in November and December. That was the year 2020, which is certainly not a blueprint for other stock market years due to the corona crash in March.
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