Breathe easy in Europe? Many observers and European heads of government were relieved to hear the results of the first round of the French presidential election.
Emmanuel Macron did better than expected and, like in 2017, has to go into the runoff against Marine Le Pen. However, the fact that Macron will go into the duel against the right-wing populist on April 24 is a distorted picture.
Compared to 2017, the social and party-political coordinate system in France has shifted significantly. It cannot be ruled out that Le Pen could ultimately benefit from this and move into the Élysée Palace.
The numbers from the first ballot provide information about the current situation in France. They paint a picture of a deeply divided nation in which what were once popular parties have completely collapsed.
Not only the Parti socialiste, whose candidate Anne Hidalgo got only 1.74 percent of the votes, but also the Conservatives, with Valérie Pécresse from Les Républicains, plummeted to 4.8 percent.
This means they are not even entitled to public funds for this legislature to refinance their election campaigns.
A hard blow, especially for Pécresse, who has taken on debts of five million euros. An embarrassment for the survey institutes, which had given the conservatives almost ten percent credit.
The definition of French society is decisive for the choice
A disaster for the once proud conservatives and leftists in France, who until 2017, mostly in intimate togetherness, were able to decide the distribution of power between the Élysée and the National Assembly among themselves.
The left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, on the other hand, received almost 22 percent of the votes and almost made it into the runoff.
It is striking that in the first ballot three candidates from the political fringes – Le Pen, Mélenchon and Zemmour – were able to unite more than 50 percent of the votes.
This voting behavior reflects a new reality in France’s party-political coordinate system. Party competition no longer takes place along the well-known left-right axis, where economic and socio-political issues dominate.
Rather, the competitors position themselves on a cultural axis that is concerned with defining French society.
Here, Emmanuel Macron has presented himself as cosmopolitan and pro-European, while his competitors seek to revive the Grande Nation’s past greatness by rolling back globalization and European integration.
>>Read here: Duel for France: This is how Macron and Le Pen want to mobilize
This development, which has already led to the collapse of popular parties in many western democracies, is particularly intense in France.
The reason for this is Macron’s political strategy. With the founding of his neither left nor right party, La République en Marche, he managed to unite the centre.
As a result, he has buried his competitors in the political center. At the same time, the fringes have been able to grow and thrive, creating powerful enemies here.
All left-wing candidates entered the race with anti-capitalist or communist electoral platforms, while Marine Le Pen on the far right was even overtaken by Eric Zemmour and her platform blurred.
What does that mean for the runoff election on April 24? Voter migration and voter turnout will be decisive. After the strategic first-round elections, Emmanuel Macron has few reservoirs of votes to rely on.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s electorate will probably be decisive in the election. The previous voters of the left-wing candidate are critical of Macron’s policy mix of liberal economic policy and tough socio-political reforms.
Macron’s economic record is impressive
Marine Le Pen’s foreign policy program, on the other hand, could be more attractive to her because Mélenchon also criticizes the EU and sees Russia as a strategic partner.
Forecasts assume that his previous voters are split one-third between the two candidates, while the last third is undecided.
Voter turnout will be just as relevant. In order to mobilize non-voters, Emmanuel Macron must move to the left and shed his image as the “president of the rich”.
Young people in particular, voters outside of the big cities and in the lowest-income groups have so far stayed away from the ballot box. For them, Macron is a symbol of the elite and centralist regimentation from Paris.
For the duel up to the runoff election, the perceived economic prospects will also play a central role.
Macron’s record is actually impressive: gross domestic product is at a record high, the labor market is recovering, direct investment is flowing into France, and disposable household income has grown more than under previous presidents.
But with her insistence on purchasing power, Marine Le Pen reaches the workers and the population in the countryside. They feel cut off, worry about relocating their jobs or fear that high petrol prices will finance the environmental and foreign policy preferences of the urban population in the future.
In many places, the French only hear and read about the upswing in the media. You don’t feel any of it in your wallet yet.
A Le Pen victory would spell a rift in Europe
The run-off election will not only decide the future of the Grande Nation, but also another major project: Europe. President Le Pen cannot single-handedly torpedo the European Union and international organizations like NATO.
But she could throw a spanner in the works in many places. This also applies to the neighborhood policy with Germany.
For years, Marine Le Pen has criticized the cooperation as a betrayal of French sovereignty and already announced during the election campaign that he wanted to terminate the Aachen Treaty. This also includes the commitment to a common security policy agenda.
Not only would the Franco-German engine falter, the EU would also be weakened on the geopolitical stage by Marine Le Pen’s proximity to Vladimir Putin. With regard to Ukraine, this would be a huge setback for European unity and thus a great victory for Vladimir Putin.
Emmanuel Macron will have to work hard to avoid this rift in Europe, because despite his lead, the upheaval he has unleashed in the country’s political forces could be his undoing.
He must now also reach the citizens outside of the urban centers, cushion economic risks through social policy measures for low earners and shed his image as an elitist model student.
Ahead of the French elections, all of Europe is holding its breath, hoping to breathe again on April 24th.
The author: Cornelia Woll is a professor of political science and president of the Hertie School in Berlin. The German-French worked for twenty years at the University of Sciences Po in Paris, where she headed a Max Planck Center, among other things.
More: It would paralyze the West for years: Why President Le Pen would be a disaster.