Dusseldorf After two trading days with significant price losses in the meantime, the mood on the German stock market is positive. But the Dax cannot keep up the high initial gains and on Thursday afternoon was only 1.2 percent higher at 13,958 points, an increase of around 160 points.
This intraday low from yesterday’s trading day could be an important landmark when trying to bottom out. In other words: Courses below 13,500 points should allow the Dax to slide further towards 13,000 points. Overall, the technical chart situation remains challenging.
At first glance, courses above 14,000 points on Thursday came as a surprise. Konstantin Oldenburger from the broker CMC Markets explained that, against the background of mounting risks, bullish investors are finding it increasingly difficult to “resist the almost tsunami-like selling waves”.
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Especially since the Frankfurt Stock Exchange survey of medium-term institutional and private investors gives no signal that prices will rise again. Because since the survey of the previous week, the leading German index has fallen by seven percent at its peak. But the mood of the pros has not changed at all on balance – a rather unusual occurrence.
In view of the many risks, such as the new recession forecasts, the stoppage of Russian gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, the possible order for further corona lockdowns in China and the warning of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov about the danger of a nuclear war, the professionals should actually become pessimistic, i.e. falling expect courses.
According to the sentiment analysis, that would have been a counter-indicator that would have increased the chances of rising prices. In this scenario, new capital could have flowed back into the market. However, there is no skepticism – and that is a burden for the Dax, according to behavioral economist Joachim Goldberg, who evaluates the survey. “We cannot give the all-clear,” he explains.
Foreign investors in particular are likely to have caused the price slide on the German stock market in the past few trading days. One indication of this is the falling euro exchange rate, which has fallen by around 2.7 percent against the dollar since last Wednesday. Clearly a lot of capital has flowed out of Europe.
More Handelsblatt articles on the stock market
The mood in the USA is different. According to the current sentiment survey by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), the proportion of bulls among US private investors remains at a historically low level of 16.4 percent. At the same time, the percentage of pessimists rose to 59.4 percent – the highest level since March 2009.
The bad mood is a supporting factor for the US stock exchanges. The same applies here: the negative mood is a counter-indicator because many investors are not invested and are waiting for an entry.
Inflation data in focus
Stock market traders direct their attention, among other things, to the German inflation data. Experts expect the inflation rate for April to be similar to that in March, with an increase of 7.2 percent compared to the same month last year. A drop in the inflation rate would be a positive surprise for the stock exchanges, while a further increase would be a negative one.
“Inflationary pressures are too high for central banks to look at anything else,” said investment bank Mizhuo’s investment strategist Peter Chatwell. In the fight against inflation, they themselves would have to accept the risk of a recession.
The European consumer mood barometer is also on the agenda. Analysts predict a level of minus 16.9 points here. The GfK index for German consumer sentiment had fallen to a record low due to the Ukraine war and inflation.
Look at the individual values
Delivery Hero: The food delivery service significantly increased sales in the first quarter. Customers placed goods with a total value of 10.1 billion euros in the digital shopping cart at group level, almost 31 percent more than in the same period of the previous year. Nevertheless, with a minus of more than eleven percent, the share leads the Dax list of losers by a wide margin.
The company went public in July 2017 with an issue price of EUR 25.50 and hit its previous record low of EUR 25.26 on the first day of trading. Today’s daily low of 26.18 euros was not far away from that.
In November of last year, the paper was traded at EUR 128.50 and has since slipped by around 80 percent.
hellofresh: The cooking box supplier recorded more customer and order numbers at the beginning of the year. In the first three months of the year, the company, which is listed on the Dax, had around 8.5 million active customers (previous year: 7.3 million) and almost 34.6 million orders (29.3 million).
The company had already announced the first figures the evening before and confirmed its forecast for the year. After an increase of almost twelve percent on Wednesday, the paper rose by a further two percent on Thursday. However, Hellofresh stock has lost over 80 percent of its value since the end of November.
Fielman: Despite the pandemic and the consequences of the Russian attack on Ukraine, the optician chain is growing and increasing profits sharply. Nevertheless, the share fell 1.6 percent.
For the current year, the listed family company has announced an increase in sales of up to ten percent and a noticeable improvement in margins. However, the forecast is subject to the proviso that neither restrictions in the fight against corona nor protracted consequences of the war have a significant impact on business.
LPKF: The laser specialist is struggling with delivery problems. According to the company, there are challenges in shipping the products, especially in the solar segment. The company figures and the forecast are well received on the stock exchange, the share rises by more than ten percent.
Here you can go to the page with the Dax course, here you can find the current tops & flops in the Dax.