Dax can only hold part of its profits

Overall, there are increasing signs that the stock market is beginning to bottom out. For example, Citigroup’s “Macro Risk Index” is at the level of the Lehman, euro or corona crisis.

The index shows that there is a dramatic risk aversion among institutional investors. Values ​​higher than 0.5 signal increasing risk aversion, values ​​lower than 0.5 willingness to take risks. For Robert Halver, capital market expert at Baader Bank, “the current extreme value of 0.88 speaks for a bottoming out”.

But in order to turn this ongoing bear market rally into a sustainable upward movement, Halver believes that the cycle of sanctions and counter-sanctions must be broken. “We’re not that far yet,” he explains.

In an international comparison, Europe’s stock exchanges are particularly affected, with a valuation discount of a good 30 percent compared to the US competition. Since the invasion of Ukraine, the Dax has lost around six percent, while the US stock market indices have tended sideways. European companies are apparently more affected by the Ukraine war than overseas companies due to their geographical proximity, dependence on raw materials and cyclical nature.

“Compared to this handicap, which is also an investor-psychological handicap, the fact that they generate around two-thirds of their sales on other continents on average pales in comparison,” explains Halver. On a positive note, European equities would be investors’ first choice if the conflict were to be resolved.

Up and down throughout the week

The losses on Thursday seemed to make Wednesday’s brilliant recovery – the Dax gained more than 1000 points – almost forgotten. But only almost: There is still an upward price gap between the highest point on Tuesday with 13,106 points and the lowest point of the 1000-point rally with 13,199 points. According to technical analysis, such a gap is a support and thus serves as a short-term orientation.

If the gap is closed, the starting point before the brilliant one-day rally would be reached again, after which the Dax could quickly slide lower again. For the optimists among investors, the past few trading days have brought at least one pleasing result. There hasn’t been a new low since Monday this week – a first sign of a more stable market.

Consolation also offers the analysis of the technical analysts at HSBC Germany. The experts looked at how trading continued after such a strong rally as on Wednesday in stock market history.

Most recently, there were major price increases in October/November 2008 during the financial crisis and at the end of March 2020 after the corona crash. The good news: In all cases, the German standard values ​​were clearly up twelve months later – on average even by more than 25 percent. However, the way there was initially very bumpy for the Dax after the significant price gains during the financial crisis.

Oil prices rise only slightly

The fact that the German stock market is rising is also inversely related to the oil price. Crude oil prices hit new highs when Germany’s leading barometer fell to a new low for the year in the form of 12,348 points on Monday. The North Sea variety Brent cost $139.13 at times.

At times, Putin’s statements cost Brent crude oil from the North Sea its daily profits. In the evening, the price is about two percent higher at $ 111.64. During the day, oil prices had gained four percent.

Two weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, one question is growing in the global oil market: how much crude will Asia buy from Moscow? According to a report by the Bloomberg news agency, there are tentative signs that a largely self-imposed buyers’ strike is continuing there as well.

This reluctance is reflected in the prices for crude oil from eastern Russia. Earlier this week, a shipment of Sokol crude, used mostly in Asia, was offered at a discount of up to $14 a barrel to the Dubai reference price. At the beginning of March, the same type was still being offered at a premium of one dollar per barrel.

Meanwhile, on the palladium market, Putin’s comments dampened speculation that Russian supplies would be disrupted. The price of the precious metal needed to build autocatalysts turned negative, falling four percent to $2,800 a troy ounce. However, it still cost around ten percent more than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of palladium. Gold also lost some of its value.

Look at the individual values

Siemens Energy: Selected stocks from the renewable energy sector remained in demand on Friday. The titles of the Siemens Gamesa mother Siemens Energy were at the top of the Dax with an increase of more than four percent. SMA Solar was one of the biggest winners in the SDax.

Fraport/Lufthansa: The airport operator Fraport was able to more than triple the number of passengers in February compared to the same period of the previous year, which was characterized by the lockdown. Compared to February 2019 – i.e. before the outbreak of the corona pandemic – the numbers have more than halved. Shares in the MDax rose by around 2.5 percent. Lufthansa stocks turned negative in late trading.

Lanxess: The specialty chemicals group ended the past year with a significant increase in earnings despite higher costs for energy and raw materials. Lanxess thus achieved its targets for the year. Shareholders are to receive a dividend of EUR 1.05, which is five cents higher. This boosted the course, which rose by up to 7.5 percent and ultimately closed 4.5 percent higher at EUR 41.68.

Adidas: The shares rose 3.5 percent after losing more than 6 percent the previous day. Analysts at HSBC upgraded the shares to “buy” from “hold”.

Here you can go to the page with the Dax course, here you can find the current tops & flops in the Dax.