Tokyo Japan has heralded a military turning point: On Friday, the government decided to realign and massively upgrade the Japanese military in order to meet the challenges posed by China, Russia and North Korea. Among other things, the share of armaments expenditure in the gross domestic product is to be increased to two percent by 2027.
In addition, the Japanese government intends to buy several hundred Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US allies in order to be able to carry out counter-attacks on neighboring countries if necessary. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida justified the purchase of missiles in advance: “The basic idea is to improve deterrence and further reduce the possibility of missile attacks.”
The adopted new national security strategy named China as an “unprecedented strategic challenge” for the first time. The government wants to prepare the country for the worst.
The new choice of words alone symbolizes a drastic, long-discussed reform of Japanese security policy, which Kishida commissioned immediately after taking office in autumn 2021. For the first time since 2013, Japan has now revised the three most important pillars of its defense policy: the national security strategy, the national defense strategy and the guidelines of the national defense program.
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For Tobias Harris, the Asia expert at the German Marshall Fund, the result represents “a remarkable turning point”. Kishida has broken with the rule that has been in force since 1976, limiting defense spending to one percent of Japan’s economic output. With this step, the government wanted to allay the fears of its Asian neighbors that the former colonial power would rearma again.
Almost 300 billion euros in five years: How Japan wants to upgrade
The government now wants to invest 43 trillion yen (294 billion euros) in armaments by the 2027 budget year in addition to the previous budget. According to previous reports, 62 billion euros are earmarked for the maintenance and repair of large platforms such as airplanes and ships, and another 41 billion euros for new weapons.
In addition, Japan wants to buy anti-ship missiles and Tomahawk cruise missiles for 34 billion euros. Japan would be only the second country after Great Britain to which the USA entrusts its cruise missiles. The development of electromagnetic pulse weapons, so-called railguns, is also planned. In addition, the Japanese government plans to stock up on ammunition and supplies. In addition, it is planned to set up cyber and space battalions and a joint command for all branches of the armed forces.
Experts also assume that the salaries of Japan’s soldiers will be increased significantly. Already there are not enough volunteers, and the competition with companies for new employees is becoming tougher as the number of young Japanese people falls.
Japan is threatened militarily by three nuclear powers, namely China, North Korea and Russia. However, China is seen as the greatest threat.
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The country has around 300 ground-launched cruise missiles and more than 1,000 ballistic missiles that could hit Japan, according to the US Department of Defense. There are no medium-range missiles from Japan and the protecting power USA. But the nuclear-armed states of Russia and North Korea also have Japan in their sights.
Attack on Taiwan would be an existential threat to Japan
China not only claims islands controlled by Japan, but also threatens the chip superpower Taiwan to unite the island with the People’s Republic of China by force if necessary.
Top politicians in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party have repeatedly said that such an attack also poses an existential threat to Japan. Because that would give China free access to the Pacific and could interrupt Japan’s sea routes.
At the same time, the political statements suggested that Japan would join the US in defending Taiwan. Experts consider it inevitable that the country would be drawn into a conflict anyway. Because China can hardly attack Taiwan successfully without attacking the large US military bases in Japan.
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Japan’s rearmament is therefore viewed critically in China. The Global Times, an English-language mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, warned in an editorial: “In our view, the insecurity shown by Japan is largely fake to find excuses for easing restrictions on its military power.”
Alluding to Japan’s colonial history in China, the medium warned that this path “will definitely lead Japan into a dangerous and barbaric maelstrom.” It is logical that China would respond with rearmament.
China’s rearmament has alarmed its neighbors.
(Photo: IMAGO/Kyodo News)
The government of the heavily indebted country wants to finance Japan’s rearmament primarily through savings in other budgets and tax increases, which are expected to contribute more than one trillion yen a year. She also wants to use budget surpluses.
Due to resistance from Kishida’s Liberal Democratic Party, the coalition with the New Justice Party refrained from setting specific revenue targets on Friday. It is planned, however, to ask companies to pay more through an additional tax. The corporate tax had been cut by eight percentage points under former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
In addition, the tobacco tax is to be increased and around half of an additional tax, which amounts to 2.1 percent of income, is to be diverted to the Ministry of Defence. This temporary tax was originally enacted to help rebuild Japan’s northeast, which was hit by an earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster in 2011.
The planned rearmament changes the long-standing distribution of roles in the alliance with the USA, in which the protecting power would serve as an offensive “spearhead” and Japan as a “shield” in the event of attacks. Japan has the second most modern navy in the world. But the armament and the strategy have so far been designed primarily for national defense.
In the alliance with the USA, Japan has so far played a more defensive role.
(Photo: AP)
Teneo Intelligence security adviser James Brady expects Japan to be less passive militarily. “Japan plans to rely less on borrowed American power and more on its own strength,” says Brady. He assumes that the government will use its strengthened military capabilities “for deterrence rather than for power projection”.
Japan develops new fighter jet with Britain and Italy
The US welcomes this step. For decades, the protecting power has been asking Japan to take on more tasks in the alliance. Tokyo governments followed suit, albeit slowly. Only under Prime Minister Abe, who was assassinated this year and ruled from 2012 to 2020, did Japan become more active in terms of security policy.
Not only were helicopter carriers converted into aircraft carriers. Ab also expanded the powers of the military. In addition, he relaxed a very strict arms export ban, which was reflected in a historic project.
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This month Japan announced that it will join forces with Britain and Italy to develop a new fighter jet by 2035. “This project marks a turning point for Japan, which has cooperated primarily with the United States for its defense,” said the Japanese daily Nikkei.
Under Kishida, the Japanese government forged military alliances with Australia and Britain and is attempting to expand military cooperation with the US’ second East Asian ally, South Korea. He also wants to expand the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a loose alliance that includes India as well as the USA, Japan and Australia.
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