China miscalculates in the Ukraine crisis

Putin and Xi

Beijing presents itself as a neutral mediator in the Ukraine conflict, but is on Moscow’s side.

(Photo: dpa)

China is squirming. Every day the state leadership tries to perform an impossible feat: Beijing is on Moscow’s side in the Ukraine war, but at the same time wants to appear neutral. Because that cannot work, the state leadership gets caught up in contradictions.

She does not name Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine. She is abstaining from votes in the UN Security Council condemning Russia’s aggression.

At the same time, one of Beijing’s most important foreign policy maxims is that the sovereignty of all states must be respected. Also those of Ukraine.

That doesn’t go together. And what Beijing is currently showing can only work in an autocracy. In such a system, journalists can do little more than ask. You always get the same contradictory answers. There is no opposition. And China’s all-powerful head of state and party leader, Xi Jinping, doesn’t need to be afraid of not being re-elected.

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Beijing’s tossing and turning will increase over the next few days and weeks as the foreseeable humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine unfolds. If the number of dead and injured continues to rise. When it becomes clearer which side China was on with its joint statement with Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 4, long before the invasion of Ukraine. When it becomes clear to whom China’s head of state and party leader Xi Jinping actually swore “friendship without borders” at the meeting in Beijing.

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The fact that Beijing now even wants to act as a neutral mediator in the conflict is absurd. Because it is extremely unlikely that China will withdraw substantially from the joint declaration and from Russia as the conflict progresses.

China’s support for Putin’s war in Europe is well registered in the EU, Germany and the US. The federal government, whose voice also carries great weight within the European Union, is currently working on a new China strategy.

A new national security strategy is also being planned. China’s behavior in the Ukraine crisis shows the dangers emanating from the regime like under a magnifying glass and will strongly influence these strategic decisions.

China underestimates the impact of its actions in Europe

Alliances that can also turn against China in case of doubt are already strengthened. In the Ukraine war, Europe and the USA are as united as could hardly be expected.

The Chinese leadership has once again underestimated the impact of actions of this kind in Europe. In the end, China, which depends on economic cooperation with Europe, is harming itself.

It’s not the first time that Beijing has miscalculated. The government had already miscalculated when it imposed economic boycotts on Lithuania because of a foreign policy affront and the EU then sued China at the WTO. She had also misjudged when she sanctioned MEPs and they responded by stopping the CAI investment agreement wanted by China with the European Union.

Such actions run counter to China’s long-term economic interests. The war in Ukraine is forcing a clear positioning in the international community – this also applies to Beijing.

Skepticism about China is increasing. This will also make itself felt in economic relations. For the economy, which is still largely dependent on foreign technology and is facing a very difficult year anyway, this will be a heavy burden.

More on this: China is behind Russia in the Ukraine war – How an expert classifies Beijing’s strategy

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