China and Russia have promised each other boundless friendship.
(Photo: imago images/ITAR-TASS)
Can China be the key player to end or at least pause Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine? At least that is the role that Beijing wants for the upcoming visit of state and party leader Xi Jinping to Moscow from Monday to Wednesday.
Xi travels to Russia with the diplomatic coup behind him, having just brought Iran and Saudi Arabia to normalize their relations and thus significantly strengthened his own role in the Middle East. However, it is doubtful that Beijing will achieve a comparable breakthrough in Ukraine.
The most important reason: In the war in Ukraine, China is not the neutral mediator that it could be between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Although Beijing’s leadership speaks of an alleged “neutrality”, the facts paint a different picture. Beijing has never officially condemned Moscow’s open war of aggression as such in more than a year and has expanded its economic ties with Russia.
The fact that Xi Jinping is personally in Moscow for three days and just wants to arrange a first telephone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shows Beijing’s diplomatic difficulties.
A peace plan without concessions from Moscow remains symbolic
The second reason for skepticism is the current military situation in Ukraine, which has turned into trench warfare. A truce in the current limits of territorial conquests would help the Russian side more than the Ukrainian. The fears that Moscow would only use the time for military reinforcements and then attack again later are justified.
After all, what else does Putin have to lose? He has been wanted on an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court since Friday. He can no longer travel to 120 countries that recognize the court. Instead, the Kremlin boss triumphantly visited the annexed Crimean peninsula and the port city of Mariupol, which had been conquered by war.
The Kremlin chief has been indicted by the International Criminal Court.
(Photo: dpa)
The fact that Beijing is beginning to get involved diplomatically in the Ukraine war is to be welcomed. Xi could make it clear to Putin that any nuclear escalation must be avoided. A ceasefire, as demanded by many emerging and developing countries, so that the consequential economic damage can come to an end, needs the right conditions.
If Xi wanted to broker a credible ceasefire, he would have to persuade Putin to withdraw from at least the areas he has seized since February 2022. However, this is currently not in the offing.
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