Today Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) flies to Moscow to have lunch with Vladimir Putin. In the background, the usual “Berlin government circles” are already trying to further downplay the expectations of the meeting, which are not all that high anyway: It is said that it is unlikely to be “in a completely different game” after the meeting. However, underneath this diplomatic user interface, there are three interesting developments in the backend of the Ukraine crisis management:
First: In a BBC interview, the Ukrainian ambassador in London spoke of the possibility that Ukraine could refrain from joining NATO if this prevented a war. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov immediately called the statements a step in the right direction. The ambassador then recanted and spoke of a misunderstanding. The Ukrainian President Volodomir Zelenskiy also officially distanced himself from his diplomat – and at the same time opened a back door: He emphasized that NATO membership remains a “long-term dream” for Ukraine – not a short-term one. Indeed, a declaration by Ukraine that it has no intention of joining NATO in the coming years could be the very signal that will allow Putin to withdraw his troops without loss of face.
The problem: if Ukraine’s hand is all too obviously taken by the West when making this declaration, the ink immediately begins to smell unpleasantly of that of the 1938 Munich Agreement.
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Second: The federal government is trying to revive the so-called Minsk Agreement. Government soldiers have been fighting Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine since April 2014. Five months after the fighting began, a first ceasefire was signed in Minsk with a peace plan for the region. But there is a problem with the implementation.
Contrary to the agreements, the breakaway areas have been subject to an economic blockade by Kiev since 2017, from which only humanitarian aid is exempt. The autonomy envisaged for the eastern Ukrainian region has also not been realized so far.
(Photo: imago images/ITAR-TASS)
In Kiev, Scholz welcomed the fact that Selenski now wants to present laws to fulfill the agreement. This would deprive Moscow of a possible pretext for an invasion – and gain valuable time for further negotiations.
Third, in a carefully choreographed and televised meeting with Putin, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recommended that his boss continue negotiations. “I think our possibilities are far from exhausted,” said the minister. Putin then countered that the West could try to drag Russia into “endless talks” with no clear results. He wondered if there was still a chance of reaching an agreement on Moscow’s core demands, the president said. “There’s always a chance,” Lavrov replied.
It should be no coincidence that this state drama was broadcast two days before the Russian attack predicted by US intelligence services for Wednesday. “We do not believe that Putin has already made the decision to invade,” said European security circles.
The conclusion of my colleague Jens Münchrath: “Russia is unpredictable, the danger of war is real. But nobody really wants to risk escalation – possibly not even Vladimir Putin himself.”
The stock markets are already in war mode, the Dax closed yesterday more than two percent in the red and at times fell below the mark of 15,000 points. The US stock exchanges also recorded losses, albeit not dramatic ones. Crude oil prices climbed to their highest level since 2014.
Russia has become increasingly uncertain as a sales market for the German economy in recent years. Germany exported goods and services worth 26 billion euros to Russia in 2021, which is only 1.9 percent of total exports, and the trend is falling. Only 3,651 German companies are still represented in Russia, compared to 6,301 in 2011. Matthias Schepp, head of the German-Russian Chamber of Commerce in Moscow says: “It is obvious that even more companies will pack their bags in 2022 if solutions are not found soon that will stabilize the business climate.”
If, yes, if it weren’t for this one Russian product to which the Federal Republic is attached like a junkie to a bag of glue: natural gas. The filling level in German gas storage facilities is already at a record low. Particularly in focus: the giant storage facility in Rehden, Lower Saxony, which is only 3.6 percent full. It belongs to Astora, a subsidiary of the Russian state-owned company Gazprom.
The Handelsblatt has attentive readers, and the Morning Briefing in particular: Some of you have noticed that the chart published here yesterday on the number of German passenger cars already had a few kilometers under its belt. It showed the status at the beginning of 2021. Our Handelsblatt Research Institute then researched more up-to-date figures. They reflect the status of autumn 2021 – and show Tesla’s enormous growth rates in the German car market even more clearly.
And then there is Jared Isaacman, who is preparing to conquer a status that had recently lost its glamor due to corona restrictions and climate awareness: king of frequent flyers. However, the 39-year-old US tech billionaire doesn’t crave a boring Senator card, he feels called to higher things. After taking his first flight as a space tourist in September, he now wants to book three more space trips – all with SpaceX, the space company of Tesla founder Elon Musk.
It is not known whether SpaceX will build Isaacman’s own departure lounge in Cape Canaveral, where champagne and hot-off the press copies of the Handelsblatt will be available before take-off. Just like the answer to the question of whether frequent flyers can now always enter the capsule in boarding group one, regardless of their booking class.
I wish you a thoroughly fresh day.
Best regards,
Her
Christian Rickens
PS: Before the next round of federal and state governments on the corona situation on Wednesday, Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner called for opening steps: “We have to start the process now and normalize life step by step.” We want to know from you: When should there be easing? And: Do regional regulations or a uniform approach by all federal states make more sense? Write us your opinion in five sentences [email protected] . We will publish selected articles with attribution on Thursday in print and online.