Borsa İstanbul’s reflex to the economy management was with a 20 percent increase in TL-based, if we calculate it from the day after the last election, when the first rumors of orthodox policies emerged under Mehmet Şimşek’s management.
However, the dollar/TL rate, which has been steadily increasing after the election and has been accelerating in recent days, has actually changed all the calculations made for the stock market so far.
On January 3, 2023 (5705 points), when the Bist100 index saw its historical peak, the index peak, which corresponded to 304 dollars in dollar terms, has now increased to 6463 points with today’s dollar rate.
In other words, the stock market needs to rise 21 percent more than this level (assuming the dollar rate does not rise further) with the current exchange rate, so that it has reached its peak in dollar terms and has closed its losses in dollar terms since the peak.
On the other hand, since the rise in the dollar does not slow down, every rise in the exchange rate actually changes the peak target.
It is thought that the one that will determine whether the stock market will reach this level will be inflation, which will come to the agenda again with the introduction of new economic policies.
In other words, it is believed that an inflationary process similar to the one in 2022 may create an inflation effect on domestic investors again, and this may cause the stock market to move towards a return above inflation with a behavior trend focused on protecting money.
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