In the runoff, the centrist competes against the right-wing populist.
(Photo: Bloomberg)
Paris Sometimes Germany and France seem like an old married couple who have little to say to each other but stay together. You’ve gotten used to each other’s quirks, the cost of a breakup would be far too high. And anyway: What should the neighbors think? And who would get the common house of Europe in the event of a divorce?
But behind the facade, an alienation has been felt for some time. This is currently reflected in the astonishing disinterest of Germans in the presidential elections in France. An election whose outcome in the German-French rut could suddenly cause a real stir. The risk of right-wing populist Marine Le Pen winning the runoff against President Emmanuel Macron should not be underestimated.
Of course, the Russian war against Ukraine is rightly the focus of attention. But the French election is directly linked to this historic challenge for Germany and Europe: under President Le Pen, there would be a risk that Paris would veer away from the Western front against Vladimir Putin. Plans for stronger European cooperation in security and defense policy would be obsolete.
The German economy faces a period of uncertainty
In this scenario, the German economy would face a period of great uncertainty. France is one of Germany’s most important trading partners. Both countries are founding guarantors of the common market in the European Union. Le Pen is no longer talking about leaving the EU. But with her policy she would destabilize the euro and undermine the European treaties.
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The French counterpart to German disinterest is an unhealthy fixation on the neighboring country. Especially when it comes to economic developments, there is a reflex to immediately use the Federal Republic as a benchmark. This, in turn, feeds the idea of a “German diktat”, with Berlin allegedly forcing its financial policy agenda on the French in the EU for its own economic interests.
This Germany-critical motif belongs not only to Le Pen’s repertoire, but also to that of left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon and right-wing nationalist Éric Zemmour. In the first ballot, they together achieved a good 50 percent of the votes. EU skepticism and longing for isolation have arrived in the French mainstream.
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Something has fundamentally slipped in the neighboring country. In Germany, however, people seem to continue to assume that the Franco-German tandem is a matter of course. Ever since Charles de Gaulle and Konrad Adenauer, that has always worked out well. Only three years ago, both countries ceremonially signed the Treaty of Aachen, an update for the Élysée Treaty of 1963. The cooperation is secured, at least on paper.
Although Le Pen condemns the war, her closeness to Putin has attracted attention in the past.
(Photo: AP)
The April 24 runoff in France could be a rude awakening. The more likely variant is a re-election of Macron. But the polls and the mood in France show that the nationalist right has never been closer to taking power.
Even if the president prevails in the end, it is unlikely that he will be given a strong mandate for a second term. The new lines of conflict should also set the framework for future elections. It is high time that Germany took note of the changed situation with its most important partner in the EU.
More on the subject: That’s why Macron is so unpopular in France.