A sigh of relief in Brussels and Berlin – Macron wins against Le Pen

French voters have now averted this nightmare scenario. Macron is the first French head of state to win re-election in 20 years. But he has to lead a divided country in the next five years as an unpopular head of state. His political room for maneuver will be more limited than at the beginning of his first term in 2017, when he entered the Élysée Palace at the age of 39 as a fresh candidate for change.

In the EU, he may find it more difficult to pursue his plans for a united, “sovereign Europe” if more than 40 percent of voters at home voted for the candidate for isolation. Domestically, Macron is counted, the dissatisfaction could be discharged on the street at the next opportunity. The tensions raise fears of a renewed protest movement like that of the “yellow vests”, which demonstrated for months in late 2018 and early 2019 against higher taxes on fuel.

Macron had loaded onto the Field of Mars at the Eiffel Tower confident of victory on Sunday. There, his supporters cheered with relief when the television stations announced the first forecasts at 8 p.m. In front of the imposing backdrop, the President wants to look back on his second term in a speech during the course of the election evening.

At Le Pen, the mood oscillated between disappointment and irritation. Around 600 supporters of the right-wing populist had gathered in a former royal hunting residence. The exclusive ambience of the painstakingly restored Pavillon d’Armenonville in the Bois de Boulogne forest to the west of Paris does not really fit Le Pen’s self-image, who portrayed herself in the election campaign as the president of the simple French.

The champagne with the label “Marine Présidente 2022” is on ice in the pavilion, but the party mood is probably gone. Le Pen had big plans for the event of her victory: she wanted 13 buses with her likeness to drive through Paris. The great places of French history should be on the way, Arc de Triomphe, Concorde and Bastille.

Voter turnout is falling – the left probably wanted to prevent the right-wing president

Almost 49 million French people were called to vote on Sunday. Macron and Le Pen qualified for the runoff two weeks ago. The supporters of left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who was eliminated just behind Le Pen in the first ballot, played a decisive role in the runoff. Although he did not make a clear recommendation for Macron, many of his voters apparently decided in the end to vote for the unpopular president in the runoff to prevent a right-wing populist from becoming president.

But growing support for the far right is a red flag: when the two candidates faced off in the runoff five years ago, Macron had beaten Le Pen by 66 percent to 34 percent. When her father and party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen reached the second round of the 2002 presidential election, 82 percent of the French voted for the then head of state Jacques Chirac.

According to initial estimates, voter turnout on Sunday was around 72 percent, around three percentage points lower than five years ago. This suggests that many French people were not happy with either candidate in the runoff. The low turnout could also be related to the fact that several regions of the country are in the school holidays and families have gone on holiday.

The pro-European Macron represents a socio-politically liberal course. In principle, he wants to continue his economic reforms in his second term in order to make France more competitive. However, given his poor poll numbers shortly before the election, he weakened some demands, such as the plan to raise the retirement age from 62 to 65.

As one of the first official acts after re-election, Macron is planning a “special law for purchasing power”, with which he wants, among other things, to adjust pensions to the high inflation. He wants to oblige companies with good business results to transfer part of their profits to their employees as a purchasing power bonus. The salaries of civil servants are also expected to rise. He wants to continue the government-financed gas and electricity price caps.

The president got into the election campaign late and only officially announced his candidacy shortly before the deadline at the beginning of March – even if there was little doubt about his ambitions. He justified the decision in favor of a lightning campaign by saying that he was in demand as head of state until the very end – shortly beforehand, Russia had invaded Ukraine. However, he could not benefit from his portrayal as the protector of the nation in times of crisis.

Macron is particularly unpopular in rural areas and among the socially disadvantaged French. There he has the reputation of the aloof “president of the rich”, even if it is precisely households with lower incomes who have benefited from the government support packages during the pandemic and the current measures against high energy prices.

Le Pen presents herself as the savior of ordinary citizens – if they are French

Le Pen, on the other hand, tried to present herself as the advocate of ordinary French people, whom she wanted to protect from the evil forces of the EU and globalization. The right-wing populist has tried to adopt a more moderate image in recent years, and her party had her name changed from Front National to Rassemblement National.

She tailored her election campaign to French concerns about falling purchasing power. But their program also contained numerous demands from the far right, such as a ban on headscarves in public spaces. French people should be given preference over foreigners for jobs and housing.

Although Le Pen no longer wanted to lead France out of the EU and the euro, her election would have massively weakened the European institutions. The right-wing populist strove for a “Europe of free nations”. In addition, because of their spending plans and their rejection of European debt rules, a destabilization of the common currency would have threatened.

If Le Pen were to succeed, the unified Western front against Vladimir Putin would have suffered a dangerous crack. The right-wing populist has meanwhile condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but does not speak of the Russian war of aggression, but of the “Russian-Ukrainian war”. In the past, she had sought to be close to Putin, who welcomed her to the Kremlin in powerful images during the election campaign five years ago.

Macron is likely to appoint a new government with a new prime minister in the coming days – but this will probably only last until the parliamentary elections in the summer. This also takes place in two rounds, on June 12th and 19th. Although the French head of state has a lot of power compared to the rest of the EU, without a majority in the National Assembly his influence would shrink considerably.

Without backing in Parliament, Macron would be forced to appoint a government made up of politicians from a different political camp. The role of the prime minister would then be much more important, he could become a kind of opponent of the president.

It is currently questionable whether Macron’s central alliance “La République en Marche” will be able to secure a majority of MPs again after 2017. Because the young party often acts more like a kind of presidential electoral association and has not yet been able to put down any deep roots in France. It has performed poorly in regional and local elections in recent years.

Meanwhile, the left-wing populist Mélenchon is pursuing the goal of uniting the fragmented left-wing camp before the parliamentary elections – in order to then become prime minister with a majority in the National Assembly. In the first ballot, he was only 1.2 percent behind Le Pen and 5.8 percent behind Macron with 22 percent.

The traditional people’s parties of the center left and center right are on the ground after the presidential election: the Socialists and the bourgeois-conservative current, which now operates under the name Republicans, both got less than five percent of the votes with their candidates in the first ballot.

More: Economy, Europe, Nato – The biggest differences between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen