Gold’s rally to $300 since November is just the beginning of a larger move. But one strategist warns investors not to follow the market as gold prices are overstretched and need to correct. Also, one technical analyst thinks it’s only a matter of time before some kind of buying pressure returns to the picture.
“A fix for gold would be healthy, then…”
Carley Garner, co-founder of brokerage firm DeCarley Trading, says he expects gold to hit all-time highs above $2,100 this year. Garner adds that the next major resistance point after $2,100 will be around $2,600, an extension of the long-term trendline from 2016. However, he also states that gold will not reach record levels overnight. In this context, Garner makes the following statement:
It is rare for gold to rise without a correction. Gold can be a very difficult market to trade and can really punish smug traders.
In the near term, Garner says he wouldn’t be surprised if he sees a correction that takes gold prices back to $1,800. “That would be healthy,” Garner said. “I think a lot of people who missed this rally were waiting to pull back,” he says.
“That’s when we’ll see the gold rise!”
A key reason behind Garner’s correction forecast is that many investors are giving up on the precious metal after the disappointing performance last year, when inflation hit a 40-year high. In this direction, Garner shares the following comment:
At the end of the year nobody was watching gold, nobody was talking about gold, but this rally started to get some attention. At some point, gold will be a major topic of conversation and that’s when we’ll see prices rise.
‘Fed decision may put pressure on yellow metal, short-lived’
With gold prices hitting resistance at just over $1,940, Garner notes that the US dollar also found support with the US dollar index trading just below 102. Garner says the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision next week could provide a short-term bullish momentum for the dollar, which will weigh on gold.
However, he adds that in the long run, the Fed is closer to ending the tightening cycle, which could push the US dollar index back to around 90 points. Garner said, “All markets except the dollar have given back all their gains from the chaos in 2022. “I think we are on the verge of a bull market for the US dollar turning into a bear market,” he says.
Will Bitcoin go to zero?
cryptocoin.comAnother bullish factor for gold was the chaos in the crypto market last year. In a recent Twitter comment, Garner said that he thinks Bitcoin will go to zero. In this context, he shared:
Bitcoin may continue to rise, but it’s not worth it. I think investors are fed up with all the volatility and are ready to invest their money in more traditional assets.
Gold market technical analysis: It will eventually go to $2,000
Technical analyst Christopher Lewis illustrates the technical outlook for gold as follows. Gold markets were hammered in Thursday’s trading session to test the top of the previous channel we’re in. This caused some market memory to come into play. With that in mind, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we see some kind of buying pressure return to the picture. But if we go down here, I actually think it will be very bullish for gold. Because, frankly, there are a lot of people, including myself, trying to find some kind of value in an obvious bull trend.
I think gold will eventually go to the $2,000 level. So given enough time I would guess there are a lot of buyers out there. However, a pullback to the $1,900 level will at least attract some attention. We can also get to the bottom of the channel and even as far as the 50-Day EMA, which is already racing towards that area. The US dollar strengthened on the day, working against the value of gold. But at this point, I think we are dealing with a situation where there is a desire to preserve enough wealth to at least keep gold a viable asset.
Every time we’ve fallen for the past few days, buyers have returned to this trendline. So, it’s worth noting that as a record this looks pretty grim. However, if we go back and pack up late in the session, things will be as usual. At this point, it is almost impossible to short sell gold. Also, I suspect what we’re probably seeing is a lot of people trying to take profits more than anything else.
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