Anyone who has followed the European debate on sanctions against Russia over the past few weeks might get the impression that a steel pipe on the bottom of the Baltic Sea is the ultimate economic weapon against Russian President Vladimir Putin. As if the question of war and peace in Europe was decided by the fate of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany.
The clumsy communication of the federal government, especially the chancellor, plays a significant part in the fact that the discussion got so out of hand. Nevertheless, the general excitement about the pipeline is disproportionate to its importance for the sanctions package.
Yes, Nord Stream 2 is in the strategic interest of the Russian leadership, which is why Germany should never have gotten involved in it. After Russia recognized the separatist areas in eastern Ukraine, the German government had to stop Nord Stream 2. She has now done so, and that is a good thing. Otherwise, Berlin would have squandered the last spark of trust among its Eastern European partners.
But it is also clear that little will change in Putin’s calculations. At this point in time, the non-commissioning of a pipeline that is not in operation anyway would make about as much impression on the Kremlin as a joint trip to Moscow by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President Charles Michel – namely zero.
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The European public is engaged in a phantom discussion instead of discussing steps that would have real impact.
Measures against the Putin system
What would that be? Above all sanctions against the Russian money and political nobility. Visa bans on oligarchs and their families who shop in Paris, ski in Switzerland and study in Oxford. The confiscation of their yachts and luxury homes, the freezing of their accounts. The disclosure of front companies in which the Russian elite hides the wealth they have stolen from the Russian people.
These measures are not primarily directed against Russia, but against the Putin system. That is their advantage, and that is why they play an important role in confidential EU sanctions talks, unlike in the public debate.
German economic relations with Russia and Ukraine
Russia: German-Russian trade in goods totaled almost 60 billion euros in 2021 – an increase of around a third, which reflects the recent significant rise in energy prices. The total corresponds to a good two percent of the total German exchange of goods with other countries. This puts Russia in 13th place among Germany’s most important trading partners. Goods worth around 33 billion euros were delivered from Russia, mainly raw materials such as natural gas and crude oil – the country is Germany’s largest supplier of energy. Goods worth almost 27 billion euros were exported to Russia, mainly machines, vehicles and electrical engineering.
Ukraine: Trade relations are developing positively again after the pandemic-related slump in 2020. In 2021, German exports there increased by 17.2 percent to 5.4 billion euros. German imports even grew by 22.9 percent to 3.1 billion euros. The trade volume was thus 8.5 billion euros, almost a fifth more than in 2020. Ukraine is currently ranked 41st among the most important German trading partners.
Putin cannot afford to lose the support of the elite that safeguards his rule. His foreign policy aggressions must have costs that he cannot pass on to the Russian population, but hit himself and his clique in power. The main goal must be to stir up dissatisfaction at the top of the regime.
Because the truth also includes: Threats of capital freezes against major Russian banks, a tech embargo against Russian industry and a halt to Nord Stream 2 have had little effect so far. What weakens the Russian economy does not necessarily weaken the Russian regime. On the contrary: the import substitution that the West is forcing Russia to do enables new forms of self-enrichment.
>> Read more: Why Putin fears the EU more than they do Nato
With his recognition of the breakaway provinces in eastern Ukraine, Putin has provided the final proof that he does not want to be part of the European community of states, but wants to fight them. The Kremlin is continuing its aggression against Ukraine, the Russian military is moving closer to the Ukrainian border and could strike at any time.
Putin cannot afford to lose the support of the elite that safeguards his rule.
(Photo: dpa)
Even if Putin didn’t give the order to fire in the end, with the largest deployment of troops since 1945, he signaled to the world his willingness to wage a war of aggression without cause.
This is how it must be treated from now on: as a permanent threat to peace in Europe. That requires an answer, regardless of whether the threatened invasion of Ukraine takes place or not. Only if the EU defends itself can it hope for a course correction in the Kremlin. If not, threats of war will continue to be part of the Russian leadership’s foreign policy toolkit.
Just as Putin is attempting to destabilize European democracies with cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns, Europe must begin to weaken Putin’s rule. Not with violence, but with economic pressure against his kleptocratic regime.
More: “Russia is basically ready for war” – How dangerous is the situation on the border with Ukraine really?