Istanbul, Brussels Turkey wants to send another gas exploration ship to the Mediterranean. The “Abdülhamid Han” was to be sent by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday, the state news agency Anadolu reported. Destination and route were initially unknown, but such reconnaissance trips are observed very closely, especially by neighboring Greece. Because Turkey had already searched for gas in areas that Athens or EU member Cyprus claim for themselves.
The mission is delicate because relations between Turkey and the EU are already at a low ebb. In Brussels, dissatisfaction with Erdogan has been growing for weeks. Not only the provocations against Greece and Cyprus, but also his rapprochement with Russian President Vladimir Putin and other autocrats annoyed the partners. Western officials were already thinking aloud about sanctions against Ankara in the Financial Times. Some voices are calling for expulsion from NATO.
“Our patience is finite,” says an EU diplomat. But there are several reasons why action by the EU and the USA against the NATO partner and EU accession candidate is unlikely. Turkey has become too important to treat the government and its President Erdogan harshly. The EU foreign ministers will not meet again until the end of August. A European response to Erdogan’s escapades cannot be expected before then.
The federal government also leaves it at empty phrases. A spokesman for the Federal Foreign Office explained on request that the announcements regarding the commissioning of the new drilling ship had been taken note of. “Basically, it is important to solve open questions in the eastern Mediterranean in direct dialogue between the states involved and on the basis of international law.”
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The Turkish head of state is aware of Western carte blanche – and could continue to stoke tensions at the expense of the EU in the coming months ahead of his country’s important elections.
Two years ago, the EU imposed sanctions on sending a Turkish drilling ship. Since the war in Ukraine, gas exploration has appeared in a different light. Western countries are struggling to become less dependent on Russian gas imports – including Turkey.
At the same time, Turkey’s geopolitical importance in the war has increased. Finally, Ankara watches over the straits on the Bosphorus, provides the second largest NATO army in terms of numbers and several NATO bases on the important south-eastern flank of the alliance. In addition, the government in Ankara has excellent connections to the Middle East and Asia.
An ally who makes life difficult
Turkey is the ally that makes life difficult, but without which one cannot live, said former American ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder in a guest article for the Politico news site. A NATO exclusion would also not be an option because it could only take place with the consent of Ankara, because the principle of unanimity applies in the organization.
In addition, Erdogan has already played a constructive role in the Ukraine war on several occasions. He delivered modern Turkish combat drones to the Ukrainians. The grain deal also came about through his mediation. On top of that, he is seen in Brussels as a useful emissary who can convey messages from the West to Putin. It is unclear to what extent he is really passing on the EU’s wishes to the Russian president.
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However, EU diplomats are alarmed at the opportunism with which Erdogan is filling the vacuum left by the EU’s sanctions against Russia. At their meeting in Sochi, for example, Erdogan and Putin agreed on closer economic cooperation. In Brussels, there are now fears that Turkey will become a hub for Russian companies to avoid EU sanctions.
Since EU sanctions do not apply extraterritorially, third countries cannot be penalized for trading with Russia. EU accession candidates are expected to comply with EU sanctions. Since Turkey’s accession process has been on hold for years, the Europeans can hardly make any demands on Erdogan.
This combination of criticism of and dependence on Erdogan is now proving fatal when it comes to swaying Turkey to the side of the West. What’s more: At the working level in the European Commission, displeasure is not only growing with Turkey, but also with Greece. Almost two years ago, Ankara and Brussels agreed to hold talks at the highest political level to ease tensions.
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Since then, Commissioners and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have been regular guests in Ankara. It’s about all the important issues, such as migration and trade. There should also be a dialogue with high-ranking representatives on the subject of energy. However, this is regularly blocked in the European Council – presumably by individual member states, EU officials suspect.
The EU is in a situation where it cannot openly say what it thinks of Erdogan’s actions. The Turkish President takes advantage of this in a targeted manner – by meeting with Putin, sending out drillships and not informing his European colleagues until important negotiations have been concluded. With the grain deal, for example, both the EU and the United Nations had no idea how far the negotiations had progressed – until Turkey invited to the signing ceremony the day before.
So far, the irritations about Erdogan have only been discussed internally in Brussels and played to Ankara via low-level diplomatic channels. Publicly, however, the Commission and the Member States remain silent. The reason: A public rebuke would hardly impress the Turkish president – and thus underline how powerless Brussels is. The European Parliament even says that silence is now “the best option”.
Collaboration: Dana Heide
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