Social psychologist Leon Festinger and two colleagues answered this question with a theory in their 1956 book “When the Prophecy Comes Wrong”: The Cognitive Dissonance Theory.
At the dawn of December 21, 1954, a woman named Dorothy Martin living in the USA that aliens will end the worldHe prophesied that those who believed in him would be saved from this flood, thanks to a UFO that would come from the planet Clarion on the night of December 20 and take them into space.
His cult called “Seekers” soon became known. His followers immediately placed advertisements in newspapers and on the radio and tried to warn people. those who believe in prophecy He quit his job and sold all his assets. He even left wives who did not share his beliefs. The followers firmly believed in everything the leader said, no matter how absurd.
About 50 people gather. Midnight passes, but neither the apocalypse nor the aliens make a sound. What happened when the prophecy didn’t come true? Nothing.
Little by little when nothing happens grunts begin. At that time, Dorothy Martin shuts herself in the kitchen, but when she comes back into the living room a little later, she is smiling.
“I’ve spoken to the Clarionians again,” he tells the disgruntled group, “they’ve given Earth and us another chance, and now we must go out and work harder, convince and save more people of the inevitability of extinction, recruit them into our ranks.” This explanation relieves those waiting in the hall, because now They have something new to believe in.
The disciples, who had abandoned their jobs, wives, and properties, clung to their beliefs more tightly, let alone rebelling. Their sect had saved the world!
Their current mission was to warn humanity and prevent the same disaster from happening again. The fact that the prophecy has not been proven to be true means that those who believe in it did not violate their faith. On the contrary, he further consolidated their beliefs and prompted the group to seek new members.
What Dorothy Martin and her supporters didn’t know was the existence of the three doctoral students who had infiltrated them that night. Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken and Stanley Schachter Three researching social psychologists named the group had learned about the existence of the group from a newspaper article and decided to investigate this issue. Pretending to be disciples, they infiltrated the sect.
The researchers, who wrote their observations in their book “When the Prophecy Fails”, tried to explain this situation with the Cognitive Dissonance Theory.
According to this theory, people act in a mental balance. A mismatch between the person’s understandings, mental stress and restlessness leads to
According to the researchers, the person will try to relieve this discomfort, similarly, he will avoid situations or information that will increase this stress.
Illustration: Pawel Kuczynski
The magnitude of the stress caused by conflicting insights will also vary according to the importance and rate of these insights. Studies reveal that cognitive dissonance arises especially when a person’s self-belief (such as self-esteem, thinking he is intelligent) and his actions are inconsistent, and that people generally resolve this conflict by preserving their self-belief. Disciples in Seekers cult waiting for UFO and flood It was based on belief, not evidence.
It was also a sign of faith that they did not consider the failure of the prophecy to be in conflict with their own beliefs.
So the faith of the followers was not based on evidence but on their dedication to Dorothy; they resolved their cognitive conflicts by reinforcing their belief in him, not by thinking that they made a mistake by attaching to him.
Blind beliefs, judgments or when it comes to charismatic leaders The commitment becomes so overwhelming that when reality conflicts with it, it is easier to distort reality, no matter how absurd, in order to reduce psychological tension and conflict.
Totalitarian-populist politics, which spread like an epidemic in the world and is much more dangerous than Covid, and the conspiracy theories that feed it are a good example of this situation.
The more bitter the truth, the sharper the contradiction, Devotion of the mass in love with the totalitarian populist leader it increases that much.
In April 1945, as the Red Army took control of the suburbs of Berlin, Hitler was awarding boy soldiers fighting the Soviet army with medals for their achievements and bravery, and ordering his generals to attack. There were still masses of people who believed in him.
The congress raid in the USA after Trump lost the election showed how effective this phenomenon can be even in places where democracy and freedoms are institutionalized.
At least of young people Herein lies the importance of rationalizing and internalizing universal values.
Resources: Economist İbrahim M. Turhan, Hitit University Res. See. Emre Özyerden