Why Can’t Weather Apps Make Accurate Forecasts?

Our hands are much more likely to control the weather, especially when it comes to rain and mud. A possible storm, rain or hail may even cause us to postpone our work at times. But the frustrating thing at this point is, We see that there is light rain in the weather forecast and we get soaked after a short time.

What about weather apps? Why is it wrong sometimes?

In fact, this problem is caused by meteorology rather than phone applications.

Although the study of weather events and the predictions made in this direction are related to science, they are, in a sense, It requires long-term experience. There is no computer or single algorithm that can predict the weather 100% accurately.

Essentially, rather than a single algorithm, there are different forecast models and different interpretations of the data that allow various weather forecasts to be made for the same city. Data collected from various sources, It is processed using not one but multiple algorithms.

But experts do not disclose which data from which applications or which algorithms they use or how often they retrieve the data and Some erroneous readings occur. So, for example, an app like Dark Sky might show rain during the day, while AccuWeather only shows cloudy weather.

Phone apps compile weather data from a variety of sources.

The Weather Channel is the most advanced of these resources. According to consultants who analyzed various forecasting companies, The Weather Channel It regularly shows the most accurate weather forecast, at approximately 82%.

But this still 18% are wrong It means. So the weather forecast shown on 1.5 days out of 7 is not accurate and there is not much the phone companies can do about it.

Achieving near-perfect forecasts often requires the expertise of local meteorologists with years of experience in a particular region.

This accumulation of knowledge; weather models from national weather companies predict with near-perfect accuracy. Allows. But the problem is that there is no way yet to compile these highly accurate local predictions.

Companies like The Weather Channel are prone to making weather forecasts that are less accurate on their own, and They are very insistent on not relying on local companies.

For this reason, predictions such as storms or rain are sometimes not accurate.

In fact, the algorithms and the applications considered are improving day by day. The main reason for this is that over the years Increasingly detailed data is included in the algorithms.

When it comes to temperature, predictions are much closer to reality, but in case of rain or storm It would be much more logical to trust local meteorologists.

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