It was an unusual word of authority from the Chancellor. “If I understand the constitutional order of the Federal Republic of Germany correctly, there is only one Chancellor, and that’s me,” said Olaf Scholz (SPD), referring to statements by former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) on the Ukraine crisis. The incumbent chancellor felt compelled to use his power because he was accused of acting far too cautiously in the conflict with Vladimir Putin – which brought him increasing criticism both at home and abroad.
Only after much hesitation did Scholz put the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline on the table as a possible sanction instrument – and only covertly, without naming it. At the same time, the chancellor gave a clear refusal to arms deliveries to Ukraine, something that Ukraine and eastern NATO allies now resent. Doubts about the reliability of Germany were also voiced in the USA.
And while French President Emmanuel Macron had spoken to Putin twice on the phone in the past few days and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson also spoke to the Kremlin chief, Scholz seemed to be left out of telephone diplomacy.
The Union is tough on the chancellor, the federal government “gives a shattered picture,” said CSU boss Markus Söder. Missing persons searches for the chancellor were posted on social networks. And some in the SPD are also wondering why Scholz doesn’t offer more guidance in the Ukraine crisis.
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The growing criticism led Scholz to flee to the front on Wednesday evening and gave an interview to the “Heute Journal”, which his predecessor in office had never done. Scholz remained true to his line in the conversation: With the exception of the pithy statements about Schröder, he remained vague and only hinted at the consequences that Putin might face if he sought a military conflict with Ukraine.
Scholz has never jumped over every media baton
There are various reasons for the Chancellor’s continued reticence. On the one hand, it is simply in his nature, which many citizens and allies apparently still have to get used to. Scholz has always talked like this and has never jumped over every media stick. Contrary to the expectations of the general public, this tendency may have increased with his surprising election victory.
Nevertheless, the Scholz camp is of course concerned with the question of whether the criticism from home and abroad of the new Chancellor’s leadership style is justified. From Scholz’s point of view, the answer is: no.
The Chancellor is convinced that he has clearly set the course in the Ukraine crisis. The Scholz camp takes it for granted that arms deliveries to Ukraine are out of the question. The debate about the delivery of old GDR howitzers, for example, is difficult to understand because they would not help Ukraine at all. It is also clear that the West, with Germany’s participation, is currently building up a clear threat scenario, according to which Putin faces severe political and economic consequences if he invades Ukraine.
Since words can quickly turn into action in a precarious situation like this, Scholz is trying to exercise restraint, for example with regard to a possible non-commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. At the same time, Putin should grope in the dark as much as possible about the sanctions he is facing. SPD leader Lars Klingbeil defended Scholz because of the quiet approach. “We don’t need a chancellor who wakes up in the morning and produces headlines driven by testosterone.” In the current crisis, every step that has to be carefully prepared is important – “and not everything is immediately visible.”
Compared to Macron, Scholz looks like a passenger
However, the EU and the USA are now adopting a different approach. The EU wants to publish a package of sanctions so that Putin knows exactly what to expect if the worst comes to the worst. The USA is also sharpening its arsenal of sanctions in front of the public.
In comparison to Macron, Scholz has so far acted like a passenger in the conflict with Putin, while the French President sets the course in the driver’s seat. The French President called Moscow on Monday and last Friday. Macron is also in regular direct contact with the Ukrainian head of state Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and on Wednesday evening he also exchanged views with US President Joe Biden. Macron wanted to speak to Putin again on Thursday evening.
Even before the Ukraine conflict escalated, the opinion in Paris was that Germany was being too soft on Moscow, not least because of its energy policy interests and dependence on Russian gas. However, there is currently no open criticism of the course and Scholz’s reserved demeanor from the French government. Macron should not be unhappy that the chancellor is leaving him the big diplomatic stage. The President is campaigning, even if he has not yet officially declared his candidacy.
This week, Macron continued to delay announcing his candidacy, citing the “current geopolitical crisis”: he promised the French “that we will be president until the end and we have a crisis on the Ukrainian border that threatens our collective security.” said Macron. The advantage for him: he can continue to be the statesman without the restraint in office that would be expected of him as an official candidate in the election campaign.
Biden does not yet know the new chancellor personally
The Federal Chancellery asserts that Macron and Scholz coordinated closely in the Ukraine crisis. Also when it comes to who is talking to whom and when. After Macron initially traveled a lot, Scholz is now planning many meetings. Scholz travels to Kiev on February 14, and to Moscow a day later. This is to be understood as a clear pointer in the direction of Moscow. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) had previously caused irritation in Moscow when she traveled first to Kiev and then to Moscow.
Next Tuesday, Scholz will discuss the Ukraine crisis with Macron and Polish President Andrzej Duda in Berlin. Scholz’s inaugural visit to US President Biden is scheduled for the day before. So far, the two have not known each other personally, there have only been two phone calls and two video conferences and a meeting several years ago in a hallway at the Munich Security Conference.
The television appearance on Wednesday evening was apparently just the beginning. Scholz is now going on the offensive.
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