The dispute within the Democratic Party after its defeat in the recent gubernatorial election in Virginia leads many observers to assume that the Republicans will retake the US House of Representatives in November 2022. In fact, it’s Republicans whose future seems most uncertain – and that’s an issue of incalculable importance.
The political right has suffered from massive identity crises in the past, and not only in the USA. The rise of mass democracy since the 19th century threatened to wipe out sections of the traditional centre-right, such as the British Conservatives.
The concentration of workers in cities and factories caused by industrialization opened up new possibilities for solidarity and political organization. The emergence of revolutionary ideas – from anarchism to utopian socialism to Marxism – reflected not least the dissatisfaction of the masses with the prevailing conditions.
But the conservative camp reinvented itself, most spectacularly in Britain under the leadership of Benjamin Disraeli. From the 1860s, he relied on a nationalist ideology that was intended to appeal to as many workers as possible. She did so, and Disraeli was elected Prime Minister. The Tories soon re-emerged as the leading party, relegating the Liberals to second place for much of the rest of the century.
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The nationalism with which the “new right” was successful presented itself in various forms. The more benign variant was expressed in Disraeli’s “One Nation” vision, which saw all citizens as part of a social contract.
But Disraeli also catered to more aggressive nationalistic sentiments with the jingoistic vision of the British Empire – comparable to German hurray patriotism. In Germany and France in particular, anti-Semitism was added as a pillar of the new conservatism.
A commitment to the markets helped the conservatives
In addition, the new right was concerned with defending traditional institutions and the social order as a whole against radical changes. This thrust, which had its ideological roots in philosopher Edmund Burke’s powerful attack on the French Revolution, was another pillar of the “adaptable conservatism” that many voters embraced.
Added to this was the commitment to the markets. This also helped the conservatives to take a stand against economic and socio-political alternatives – for example against social democracy, which was initially still class-struggle. The right rejected extensive state ownership and decisive political intervention in the economy because it was allegedly not conducive to the prosperity of broad sections of the population, but detrimental.
Now, however, a combination of economic and social developments has shattered this earlier centre-right pact. With the emergence of new radical liberal ideologies came new challenges and objections to the welfare state. The anti-regulatory philosophy, with which economists like Milton Friedman popularized the alleged superiority of the free market, gained additional strength in the 1980s under British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and US President Ronald Reagan. The collapse of the Eastern Bloc and the Soviet Union reinforced this development.
Thatcher and Reagan’s deregulation agendas, however, have contributed to increasing inequality over the past four decades – the conservatives have had to redefine themselves once again. Long-serving Chancellor Angela Merkel therefore opted for a policy that was often judged to be “social-democratic”. And British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is trying almost desperately to revive Disraeli’s one-nation vision.
The Conservatives would have to reinvent themselves today
In order to deal with the causes of increasing social inequality and the challenges of globalization and Big Tech, conservatism would have to reinvent itself today. This is likely to be particularly difficult for Republicans in the US because of their historical loyalty to “big business”.
In any case, their current strategy, through legislative changes at regional level – such as the reorganization of voting districts or the fact that the parliaments of the individual states are to decide on the number of voters in the 2024 presidential election – does not indicate a future constructive role.
On the contrary: the Republicans obviously want to use such methods to reduce the weight of democratic votes and at the same time brace themselves against the ethnic change in American society – although the minorities there have long been on the way to a majority over the “whites”. If the Republicans win the next presidential election, we will probably have to put up with an America in which the former Grand Old Party has been transformed into a kind of mafia party.
The Republicans have surrendered themselves to their authoritarian tribune, Donald Trump, right down to their regional divisions. Republican politicians who maintain their integrity and do not want to surrender themselves to Trump are sidelined.
How profoundly the former president transformed the party into a right-wing populist fighting movement can be seen from another fact: Most Republican members of Congress are still resisting an investigation into the storming of the Capitol – even though the mob mobilized by Trump also did so on January 6th had personally threatened in 2021.
In 2024 a victory for Donald Trump is imminent
There is no doubt that if Trump or one of his followers wins the next presidential election, the United States is heading for a period of even deeper polarization and dysfunctional governance. Meaningful measures to combat inequality, climate change and the devastating dominance of large technology companies are then more than unlikely. However, Joe Biden and his quarreling Democratic Party, which can hardly be denied, have not yet presented a convincing political picture.
At least the Democrats are willing to be self-critical. That’s not the case with the Republicans. In 2024, if Biden’s party were defeated in the 2024 elections, the democratic system in the United States is in danger of falling apart. If Trump or one of his brothers or sisters in spirit are given the opportunity to start the longed-for revenge campaign against the “stolen” 2022 election, disaster will not only threaten the United States of North America. Rather, the shock waves will be felt throughout the world.
More: The “Biden low” prepares the ground for Republicans