Moscow Russia’s troops have experienced a dramatically poor start to the second year of the war. In several regions they suffered heavy losses, hundreds of soldiers died. The horror of the defeats is growing among the Russian population – and the accusations against their own military leadership are becoming more shrill. The comments about the “debility” and “criminal incompetence” of the officers are correspondingly bitter.
After numerous soldiers were killed in a Ukrainian attack on a barracks in Makiivka on New Year’s Eve, the Russians asked the question of guilt on Tuesday. Senator and former Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin called for an internal investigation. MP Sergey Mironov called for officers to be held accountable for ordering soldiers to be housed in an unprotected building.
Former Russian commander Igor Girkin, who led the 2014 separatist uprising in eastern Ukraine under the pseudonym Igor Strelkov, criticized the fact that ammunition was stored next to the barracks, even though they were within range of Ukrainian missiles. Blogger Archangel Spetznaz Z, who has over 700,000 followers on Telegram, wrote: “Who came up with the idea of putting many soldiers in one building where any fool understands that even if an artillery hit there will be many wounded or dead?”
Mourning rallies were held in several Russian cities on Tuesday. In the city of Samara, where several victims came from, flowers were laid in the city center. Is the mood in the country changing? Is Vladimir Putin threatened with a popular uprising that will abruptly end his era – and the war?
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At the beginning of the new year, many Russians take a break from the traditionally non-working holidays – often with caviar, sparkling wine, vodka and conversations at the kitchen table. Above all, it is about the war. And about the Commander-in-Chief: President Putin.
“Glory to the Russian heroes,” reads this billboard.
(Photo: AP)
The 70-year-old blew a New Year’s message about the continuation of the war in Ukraine and railed against the West. But above all in the urban middle class in the big cities, massive resentment is manifested. Anyone who lives in Russia and talks privately will hardly find anyone who supports the war. Fear, uncertainty and often hatred of the Kremlin are omnipresent.
However, sociologists point out that because of widespread intimidation by the authorities and manipulation by state television, it is difficult to get truthful answers. Nevertheless, it is clear that young people in Russia in particular are against the war.
Standing by – that means taking part. Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky
Even before the tragedies of New Year’s Eve, polls made it clear that Putin cannot always rely on popular support. The opinion research institute Levada, branded as a “foreign agent” in Russia, determined in a representative study in December that more Russians (50 percent) are in favor of the start of peace negotiations than for further combat operations (40 percent).
21 percent of respondents said they did not support the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. According to the institute’s official figures, the number of supporters remains high (71 percent), but political observers in Russia point out that many people no longer see Putin as a strong leader.
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The omission of the annual press conference and even the New Year’s speech suggest that he has no new answers to pressing questions. From the point of view of analysts, it is still helping him at the moment that the collapse of the economy, which was predicted by many, has not materialized so far, despite the great pressure from sanctions.
Nonetheless, independent experts attest to a veritable loss of power and control for Putin. Rather, the elite must see to it that radical forces such as the feared head of the paramilitary organization “Wagner”, Yevgeny Prigozchin, penetrate the political field.
Putin is threatened by right-wing nationalists, on whom he has long leaned. One of their spokesmen is blogger and former intelligence officer Girkin. It is true that such forces as Girkin support Moscow’s imperialist war to regain “old greatness”. But they are so disappointed by the warfare and the constant defeats that they sense treachery at the top.
The influential former secret service officer and right-wing blogger is attacking the Kremlin regime more and more openly.
(Photo: dpa)
Girkin publicly worked on Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu – because of the corruption in the Russian army and the incompetence of command leadership. Some have long taken such statements as criticism of Putin himself.
But a “palace revolution” is not in sight, as political observer Andrei Pertsev believes. Rather, high-ranking officials, the heads of security structures and companies, keep giving Putin embellished information about the course of the war in order to save their posts. Meanwhile, Putin has a reputation for losing touch with reality.
The majority of Russians still see no complicity
For many Russians in the civil service and in the public service, the question is to what extent they themselves are guilty – as followers or supporters of the war in Ukraine. According to the Levada Institute, 34 percent of those surveyed see their own moral responsibility for the deaths of civilians and the destruction in Ukraine. But the majority doesn’t think so.
The Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who lives in exile in London, called on his compatriots to stop watching. “Standing on the side – that means participating,” he said. The 59-year-old accuses Putin of having occupied the Kremlin with a “fascist” course.
Putin is omnipresent in public, here during his New Year’s speech. Nevertheless, he cannot convince all Russians with his words.
(Photo: Reuters)
At the same time, the ex-oil manager, who spent many years in a prison camp under Putin, praises the fact that many Russians are venting their displeasure despite military censorship and an “explosive increase in repression”.
>> Read also: All developments on the Ukraine war in our live blog
The Putin opponent referred to statistics according to which more than 20,000 people were arrested for political reasons in 2022 and up to a million people left the country. There were also more than 5,000 procedures for insulting the Russian army. Anyone who criticizes the armed forces or even accuses them of war crimes risks years in prison.
In politics, however, a militaristic mood prevails. Many of the powerful in Moscow still have high hopes of victory, probably because they know that if they lose, they could lose everything themselves.
Tinkov is one of the few oligarchs who openly oppose the Kremlin boss. The tech billionaire lives abroad.
(Photo: imago/ITAR-TASS)
Most of the oligarchs who lost a lot of money as a result of Putin’s war are still in bondage to the Kremlin. Only individuals abroad, such as tech billionaire Oleg Tinkov, openly oppose the Kremlin chief.
Political scientist: “No way out for Russian rulers”
Political scientist Tatyana Stanovaja sums up that Russia has completely overreached itself with the war because it has no resources to challenge the West. “This is the final stage, a mechanism of self-destruction of that post-Soviet Russia as we know it.” There is no longer a way out for those in power.
“The regime that started the war cannot win because it has no resources and cannot lose because it is not mentally ready. This means that the self-destructive internal forces are more likely to intensify,” says Stanovaya.
The expert sees the danger that “radicals with revolutionary attitudes” will become stronger. But the “horror of self-destruction” also harbors the hope that something new could then emerge.
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