Stockholm Sanna Marin has rarely been seen like this: the Finnish head of government stands in front of her supporters, large, empty eyes are a sign of deep disappointment. The political star from the far north lost the parliamentary elections. Its Social Democrats are only the third largest party behind the victorious conservative National Coalition Party led by Petteri Orpo and the right-wing populist party The Finns, chaired by Riikka Purra.
37-year-old Marin’s performances are usually upbeat and brash. Even on Sunday evening, despite all the disappointment, she tried to read something good out of the result. Her party has gained votes, she comforted herself and her supporters.
In fact, it is extremely rare, not only in Finland, for a governing party to win more votes at the end of a legislative period than in the previous elections. But Marin succeeded, her Social Democrats got 19.9 percent of the vote, an increase of 2.2 percent. “We did well. That’s democracy,” she declared almost defiantly. The problem: the conservatives and right-wing populists gained even more votes.
How can it be that Marin, celebrated abroad as a political star because of her unconventional nature, now has to step down into the second or even third row?
She has ruled Finland since 2019, reached hundreds of thousands with her social media appearances, and spoke her mind clearly. Marin gave a different political image. In addition, she mastered the Corona crisis comparatively well. She also found clear words in the Ukraine crisis and successfully led the country into NATO.
Debt increased massively
Politics professor Kimmo Grönlund of Turku’s Åbo Academy has an explanation for voters’ muted reaction. Your social media activities with many private pictures and videos were not well received by many voters, especially older ones.
>> Read here: Russia targets Scandinavia – Finland responds with drastic countermeasures
As head of government, she has also done too little to counteract the rising national debt. Significantly higher military spending after the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine and the rearmament of the country’s own army due to NATO accession caused government spending to skyrocket.
There was also costly corona aid. According to Grönlund, she has also shown weakness in leadership within her five-party coalition. There have always been conflicts, especially with the Center Party. Marin reacted too hesitantly. “Leadership is the most important task that a head of government has,” says the political scientist.
NATO membership undisputed
For Marin, losing the election is the biggest political defeat to date. The youngest head of government in the world when she took office in 2019 had to deal with the fight against the corona pandemic almost immediately after taking over government power.
>> Read here: Finland’s entry into NATO is within reach – will Sweden fall by the wayside?
Since last year, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has dominated the agenda. Finland shares a 1300 km border with Russia. The geographic proximity to the aggressor led to a complete reversal of the country’s policy of neutrality, which it had pursued for decades.
Marin successfully swore her compatriots to the task of non-alignment. Today, more than 80 percent of Finns are in favor of NATO membership, which will be officially sealed at a ceremony in Brussels on Tuesday.
Marin has not yet made a clear statement about her own future. There is speculation that she may be aiming for international office.
The 53-year-old could aim for a coalition with the right-wing populists from Riikka Purra (right) or with Marin’s social democrats.
(Photo: Bloomberg)
Much will depend on the government formation negotiations. Because 53-year-old Petteri Orpo has two options: he could strive for a coalition with the right-wing populists or with Marin’s social democrats. Unlike in the other Nordic countries, there are no qualms about a “grand coalition” in Finland.
Forming a government will not be easy. Because Orpo is considered a staunch EU fan, while The Finns party is extremely EU-skeptical. There are also great contrasts in immigration policy. While conservatives and most other parties expressly welcome labor immigration because of major demographic problems, the right-wing populists rumble against a more liberal immigration policy.
The right-wing populists achieved the best result in their history. Lead candidate Riikka Purra will confidently go into any coalition negotiations. The success of the party is mainly due to her. The 45-year-old Purra posted her messages on Tiktok almost every day. With fresh-looking videos in simple language, she apparently met the spirit of the times, even among young voters.
The Finns also want to rule
Purra recently gave her party a moderate image. Nevertheless, election winner Orpo will carefully consider whether he wants to enter into a coalition with the party, which just a few years ago was far more right-wing.
The 45-year-old led the right-wing populists to the best result in their history.
(Photo: Reuters)
But a coalition with the Social Democrats is also explosive. “Marin’s economic and fiscal policy differs significantly from the conservatives’ program,” says political scientist Grönlund.
During the election campaign, Orpo had announced tax cuts and also spending cuts of around nine billion euros in order to get public debt under control. Marin’s Social Democrats, on the other hand, advocate tax increases for higher earners and reject cuts in the social sector.
Despite the differences, Orpo does not want to completely rule out a coalition between the two parties. “Nothing is impossible in Finland, we have seen in the past that in principle everyone can do with everyone.”
Long coalition negotiations are expected in Helsinki, especially since Orpo, in addition to right-wing populists or social democrats, needs at least one other of the smaller parties for a majority in parliament. Should Orpo opt for a grand coalition with the Social Democrats, Sanna Marin will most likely take on an important office in the cabinet. Otherwise, the European stage could lure.
More: Conservatives win Finland election – Marin only in third place